Dean's World

My visit left me even more deeply convinced that we not only have a moral obligation to help displaced Iraqi families, but also a serious, long-term, national security interest in ending this crisis.

Today's humanitarian crisis in Iraq — and the potential consequences for our national security — are great.
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What we cannot afford, in my view, is to squander the progress that has been made.
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And when I asked the troops if they wanted to go home as soon as possible, they said that they miss home but feel invested in Iraq.

After completing two tours in Iraq, Sgt. Wayne Leyde won $1 million from a scratch-and-win lotto ticket on Tuesday.

Now that he's won, Leyde, a 26-year-old member of the Washington National Guard, says he's still going to volunteer to go back to Iraq for a third tour and won't spend any of the money in the meantime.
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I met the most amazing marine in Fallujah - Gunny William Gibson from Pryor, Oklahoma - his friends call him Spanky. Gunny Gibson lost his entire leg after an Iraqi sniper fired a round through his knee in Ramadi in 2006 - May 16, 2006 - just 19 months ago. He is the first full leg amputee to be returned to the fight - redeployed as an active marine. This Gunny had been in the marines for 18 years - that is who he is. He said all he wanted to do was get back into the fight. He said returning to Iraq was his first step back to feeling like he was a marine again. He runs half marathons with his prosthetic and it was when he swam in a race from Alcatraz and ended up at the feet of General Mattis out in California. As he emerged from the water General Mattis asked him what he could do for him - he said, “Sir, send me back to Iraq.”

"...and he's talking to me very low, under the chatter, and what he said was 'Every morning I wake up, and I feel like I'm pushing a little girl out of the way of a bus. And I pick her up, and I bring her to the other side of the road, and I've saved that little girl,' he said, 'every day I feel like that.' And in fact that is what s happening there. I can't tell you--"

good news, we won:

''Coalition forces, including many brave Afghans, have brought America, Afghanistan and the free world its first victory in the war on terror,'' Mr. Bush said. ''Afghanistan is no longer a terrorist factory sending thousands of killers into the world.''

John McCain's Afghanistan strategy:

Our military recommitment to Afghanistan must begin with greater troop contributions by NATO members and an end to the limitations that hinder their combat operations. We should intensify our training of the Afghan national army, including inviting Afghanistan to join NATO's Partnership for Peace to institutionalize our train and equip programs. We must expand our police training programs, provide greater resources for judicial reforms, and work with our partners to boost reconstruction. The international community should set benchmarks for Afghan governance and hold the government to them. We must also strike a new deal with Pakistan that ends the sanctuaries for Taliban and al Qaeda fighters on Pakistani territory. We will not succeed in Afghanistan if our enemies enjoy safe havens, where they will also threaten Pakistan's own ability to ward off an internal Islamist challenge as well as its neighbor's.

Discuss.

Provincial elections are of especially pressing importance because it is anticipated that they will create a political outlet for the Sunni leaders who previously boycotted the political process and/or engaged in insurgency, yet who have since allied with the US and Iraqi government against al Qaeda in Iraq. The Awakening tribal alliance based in Ramadi probably will dominate provincial balloting, as its politicians are generally considered more representative of the Sunni population than the Iraqi Accord Front.

In addition, provincial elections will shape the ongoing power struggle between ISCI and the Sadrist Movement in southern Iraq. The Sadrists boycotted regional elections in 2005 and now want to challenge ISCI power through the ballot box, while ISCI wants to consolidate its current regional dominance through dramatic decentralization outlined in any final version of the Provincial Powers Act.

Michael Totten has another essay up - plus one scary as hell video.

It's a bit frustrating that voices like Michael's aren't getting more widespread exposure. I think part of this is the way in which the political blogsphere is so divided. MJT doesn't blog on any lefty blogs or post announcements of his essays at DailyKos, so its really only the right-sided audience that gets exposed. Here at DW is about as far left as his work gets exposed to.

I do not blame the media, though. Since I actually subscribe to feeds from major media sources I see plenty of evidence that the changing realities in Iraq are being faithfully reported. Indie journalists like Totten have their roots in the blogsphere, but its they who need to reach towards the mass media, not the other way around. Part of that is to cross-pollinate their work to areas where it might not be intuitively obvious, such as leftwing communities.

I speak form experience - my dailykos diary gets troll rated half the time, too. And yet there are voices there, members of that community, who are receptive. Do we prefer the status quo or is Iraq important enough that we should seek to persuade? MJT and Michael Yon both are compelling, articulate and courageous men whose work is not easily dismissed.

Ideally what I would like to see would be MJT at Phil Carter's Intel Dump as a guest blogger. The cross pollination that would result form that would truly be beneficial to the debate, and linking to that from left sites would increase the idea-penetration and persuasiveness of the point of view that Michael argues for so vividly with his journalism.

Hamas regards the territory of the present-day State of Israel — as well as the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — as an inalienable Islamic waqf or religious bequest, which can never be surrendered to non-Muslims. It asserts that struggle (jihad) to regain control of the land from Israel is the religious duty of every Muslim (fard `ain). Hamas does not recognize Israel as a sovereign state, unlike the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which has recognized it since 1988, and calls it the "Zionist entity". Its charter calls for an end to Israel. During the election campaign, Hamas did not mention its call for the destruction of Israel in its electoral manifesto.[42] But several Hamas candidates insist that the charter is still in force and often called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" in campaign speeches

That's basically what the former Chief of Mossad, Efraim Halevy, says Israel has to do. Some highlights:

MJ: Should Hamas be required to recognize Israel's right to exist before Israel would talk with it?

EH: Israel has been successful in inflicting very serious losses upon Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank and this has certainly had an effect on Hamas, who are now trying to get a "cease fire." But this has not cowed them into submission and into accepting the three-point diktat that the international community has presented to them: to recognize Israel's right to exist; to honor all previous commitments of the Palestinian Authority; and to prevent all acts of violence against Israel and Israelis. The last two conditions are, without doubt, sine qua non. The first demands an a priori renunciation of ideology before contact is made. Such a demand has never been made before either to an Arab state or to the Palestinian Liberation Organization/Fatah. There is logic in the Hamas' position that ideological "conversion" is the endgame and not the first move in a negotiation.

MJ: Again and again, Israel and Washington too have tried to engineer which Palestinians would come to power, to whom they would speak or recognize, etc. Is this itself problematic? Should the West step back from trying to manipulate internal Palestinian politics?

EH: Yes, for two reasons. First, is the sovereign right of Palestinians to decide who their leadership should be. I think that is the basis of democracy. More than that, it is the best possible way in my opinion for a country or society to determine how it wants to be governed and how it wants to be lead. And second, so far it must be admitted that attempts to do this [manipulate internal Palestinian politics] have not succeeded. After all, in the final analysis, it would not be possible to create and fashion a leadership from without.

Of course this will piss off the insane, rightwing nutcase settler fringebats who think nothing of dragging their children into warzones, who pretend at self-reliance while being heavily subsidized at the ordinary Israeli taxpayers' expense, and who are ready and willing to attack other Jews.

However, why should the lunatic settler fringe deserve a veto over the peace process? They have an invested stake in the status quo. Just like the scum Palestinian terrorists who target children on school buses or civilians at Sbarro, they need the conflict to continue to justify their agenda. The ordinary folk of Israel and palestine want peace, but they are all held hostage.

"It is perhaps a paradox—and one that is fitting for the strangeness of our current age—that we will need to end the war against terrorism because we cannot end terrorism."

...such a band of murderous anarchists, who have about as much hope of achieving their grand dream of turning the Mideast into an Islamist caliphate as scientists have of proving one day that the moon is made of green cheese.

Even in the tribal regions of Pakistan, safe haven to the newly regrouped Taliban and Al Qaeda, voters last week turned out radical religious parties because of their ineffectiveness. Al Qaeda and related terror groups are hardly the "heirs" to communism and totalitarianism, as Bush has described them.

Iraq announced Tuesday it will buy 40 new aircraft from US manufacturer Boeing plus another six from Canadian firm Bombadier to revitalise an ailing fleet depleted by UN sanctions.

The service between Baghdad and Basra resumed with little fanfare in December after a hiatus of 18 months. Few dared use it at first, but word has spread of a safe and cheap journey, and railway officials are scrambling for funds for more carriages.

"There's been a great acceptance of the service ... People do not feel anxious. They're coming with their families," said Abdul-Ameen Mahmoud, the railway company's head of passenger transport.
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Aboard the diesel-powered train, passengers settled in for the trip, oblivious to whether fellow travelers were Sunni or Shi'ite. Women jiggled children on their knees and men chatted as the gleaming carriages pulled away from a spotless Baghdad platform, a picture of cleanliness and order in a country racked by chaos.

BAGHDAD - Iraq's parliament on Wednesday passed three key pieces of legislation that set a date for provincial elections, allot $48 billion for 2008 spending, and provide limited amnesty to detainees in Iraqi custody.

The last time Iraqis voted for local officials was January 2005, when nationwide elections ushered in representational government for the first time in modern history.

But many Sunni Arabs boycotted the polls, giving Iraq's majority Shiites and minority Kurds the bulk of power. The U.S. hopes the new elections will empower the Sunni minority and blunt support for the insurgency

For all the Western gloom, the forces trying to break up Iraq are not as strong as the fears of seeing it so trisected. Federal Iraq has survived Iranian subterfuge, the House of Saud terrorist subsidies, Turkish invasion, and Kurdish nationalism — and is still there. It won’t be quite Kansas, but the Iraqi state has a good chance to evolve into something no more violent than the usual Middle Eastern state, but without either murderous dictators or theocrats — or, of course, the genocidal murderer Saddam Hussein.
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The combination of new American tactics, the surge, shared fear of Iran, vast oil revenues, sheer attrition of jihadists over the last five years, and growing Iraqi hatred of Wahhabi terrorists over the same period, have all led to a perfect storm for al-Qaeda. It now suffers the almost unbelievable humiliation of having Arab Muslims willingly join Americans to expel it from the ancient caliphate.
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In the last analysis, the real worries about the survival of the West in this war are not with America and its courageous twenty-something suburban kids in Anbar trying to offer something better than the sharia morality of the seventh century, but with the likes of sanctimonious and cowardly churchmen in England trying to spread it.

If the enemy comes out to fight he will be met with a disciplined lethal ferocity he has never before endured. If he plays the sly game of intimidating, beheading and torturing the innocent people of Iraq when he thinks we’re not looking he will be met with a cunning, a sophistication and a relentlessness that will lead to his utter defeat.

The surge raised the violence to greater levels and then lowered the numbers with artificial manipulations to a level that had been judged unacceptable when the surge began.

For the record, assuming it’s true, I think it’s just horrible that whoever was behind this latest disaster used Down’s women to perpetrate the bombings but I don’t see it as a sign of desperation. I see it as a sign of adaptation and a brilliant one at that.

Perhaps Mr. Owens can educate me on how our troops are supposed to counter this new evil tactic?

"If anyone registers for CLCs, [Al Qaeda in Iraq] will put them in the road and kill them," lamented one man, standing outside the school where villagers were supposed to sign up for the civilian militia. Only one person made the commitment that day. "We are afraid. We don't have enough weapons to protect ourselves, and with this gun I can't protect myself against mortars."

He had just received a text message on his cellphone: 150 members of Al Qaeda are gathering in a nearby district, ready for revenge. He heard of another town where "Al Qaeda in five minutes killed everyone, including women breastfeeding. They destroyed that town completely. We don't want to repeat that."

US Army Capt. Dustin Heumphreus, commander of Arrow Troop, 2nd Squadron, 1st Cavalry Regiment, tried to calm the man -- and a host of others milling about in the background -- using as examples several other towns made safe by effective CLCs. He also noted that now the US and Iraqi military presence itself had broken any deal the town may have had with Al Qaeda. Their best choice was to join the CLCs

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The United Nations envoy to Baghdad said on Wednesday he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the Security Council despite earlier having serious misgivings about reconciliation efforts
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"At the beginning of the year we were worried ... we were genuinely concerned by the lack of progress on national dialogue," de Mistura told Reuters by telephone.

"Today that has substantially changed. It has changed our mind from being worried or from being pessimistic," he said.

Some Shi'ite lawmakers said the new law was too lax and some Sunnis said it was still too severe, but a majority backed its main provisions in drawn-out, article-by-article voting.

As David Matsuda tells it, he's probably the last person you'd expect to see in a U.S. military uniform climbing out of an armored vehicle in Iraq.

An anthropology professor from the East Bay campus of California State University near San Francisco, he's a self-described peacenik who opposed the war in Iraq, did his academic research in Guatemala and never carries a gun.

"I'm a Californian. I'm a liberal. I'm a Democrat," he says. "My impetus is to come here and help end this thing."

"It's a huge asset," said Staff Sergeant Dustin "Boogie" Brueggemann who, as a tactical psychological operations specialist, has spent the past year trying to win hearts and minds in Adhamiya, until a few months ago one of the most violent strongholds of Sunni Arab militants in Iraq.

Further up the command chain, Lieutenant-Colonel David Oclander, deputy commander of the 5,000 soldiers of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne Division, said Matsuda had given a presentation on how Iraqis resolve conflicts that proved valuable in approaching Shi'ite clerics.

"The HTT has been a great help in making sure that when we dialogue with them, we dialogue with them in a way they understand and appreciate," he said.

Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling told reporters in Baghdad that in his area of control alone, 24,000 American troops, 50,000 members of the Iraq army and 80,000 Iraqi police were taking part in the offensive against al-Qaida in Iraq.

Asked about the timing of the operation, Hertling said the answer was simple.

"Why now? Because we can. Baghdad is more secure. Anbar is more secure," he said. "Why now? Because ... the enemy has moved into these (northern) provinces."

Every mosque in the Fallujah area – and there are more than 200 of them – broadcast pro-American messages from minaret loudspeakers. The messages inside the walls are as pro-American as the ones outside. The Marines have fluent Arabic-speakers listening in so they can keep their ears close to the ground of public opinion. If the mosques turn against Americans again, the Marines need to know

Holbrooke acknowledges that in the wake of the Iraq disaster, it will be harder to carry out the type of humanitarian interventions that defined the Clinton Administration. In the case of Darfur, for example, none of the candidates have suggested sending US forces. "The standard will be higher," Holbrooke said. "The tests of an exit strategy will be higher. The risks will be higher." In the 1990s Holbrooke warned of "Vietnamalia syndrome," the aversion to using military power because of failures in Vietnam and Somalia, and says we cannot retreat now, either. "A swing from neoconservatism to neo-isolationism would not be a good deal."

Statements like these raise the question of what a post-Bush foreign policy should look like. The next President must decide: will the "war on terror" continue? What about the Bush doctrine of preventive war or the escalating size of the military budget? Holbrooke says, "The next President needs to scrap a lot of things from the Bush Administration, and torture, Guantánamo and pre-emptive war should be on that list." Wesley Clark, too, says the concept of a "war on terror" was a "terrible mistake," and he calls the Bush doctrine "nonsense, rubbish." On these points Obama and Edwards concur.

Two terrorist attacks, one in Baghdad, the other in Afghanistan. I talk about why these are relevant to Afghanistan in great length, and analyze the Democratic candidates' policy positions thereof, at Nation-Building.

A case for gross scientific incompetence. With more background here. (Via Glenn.)

I think it was made obvious what The Lancet's really about for quite some time, based on the hate-based lunatic rantings of one of its editors, Dr. Richard Horton:

The world of peer reviewed publications, especially high profile ones, is increasingly dominated, it appears, by political partisanship and economic self-interest.

The Democratic candidates were quick to issue statements about Bhutto's murder yesterday. I found the angle of critique of Obama's comments to be particularly blind, however. Come by Nation-Building (or my masochistic cross-post at DKos) and see why.

On issue after issue, China has become the second most important country on the planet. Consider what's happened already this past year. In 2007 China contributed more to global growth than the United States, the first time another country had done so since at least the 1930s. It also became the world's largest consumer, eclipsing the United States in four of the five basic food, energy and industrial commodities. And a few months ago China surpassed the United States to become the world's leading emitter of CO2. Whether it's trade, global warming, Darfur or North Korea, China has become the new x factor, without which no durable solution is possible.
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So far Beijing has managed to balance economic growth and social stability in a highly fluid environment. Given their challenges, China's political leaders stand out for their governing skills. The regime remains a dictatorship, with a monopoly on power. But it has expanded personal liberty in ways that would be recognizable to John Locke or Thomas Jefferson. People in China can now work, travel, own property and increasingly worship as they please. This is not enough, but it is not insignificant, either.
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In another Foreign Affairs essay, Princeton's John Ikenberry makes the crucially important point that the current world order is extremely conducive to China's peaceful rise. That order, he argues, is integrated, rule-based, with wide and deep foundations—and there are massive economic benefits for China to work within this system. Meanwhile, nuclear weapons make it suicidal to risk a great-power war. "Today's Western order, in short, is hard to overturn and easy to join," writes Ikenberry.

This is an epochal moment: The U.S. has a chance to break away from failed policies of the past and throw itself behind two new constitutional democracies that occupy critical geostrategic positions in the most dangerous part of the world. Will we seize this moment or let it pass

At the geostrategic level, American diplomats have had to make devil's bargains far more morally suspect than going into Iraq. General George Patton and others lamented that World War II had broken out over saving the free peoples of Eastern Europe—only to end with the Yalta accords ensuring their enslavement by an erstwhile American ally whose military we had supplied lavishly.

Michael Totten's latest:

I just returned home from a trip to Fallujah, where I was the only reporter embedded with the United States military. There was, however, an unembedded reporter in the city at the same time. Normally it would be useful to compare what I saw and heard while traveling and working with the Marines with what a colleague saw and heard while working solo. Unfortunately, the other Fallujah reporter was Ali al-Fadhily from Inter Press Services.

Mr. al-Fadhily is unhappy with the way things are going in the city right now. It means little to him that the only shots fired by the Marines anymore are practice rounds on the range, and that there hasn’t been a single fire fight or combat casualty for months. That’s fair enough, as far as it goes, and perhaps to be expected from a reporter who isn’t embedded with the military and who focuses his attention on Iraqi civilians. The trouble is that Mr. Al-Fadhily’s hysterical exaggerations, refusal to provide crucial context, and outright fabrications amount to a serious case of journalistic malpractice.

Read the rest right here.