Yesterday, Dave Price suggested that Democrats are not very likely to take back control the House of Representatives in the 2006 mid-term elections, coming up in 11 months. (See the related article linked below). Joe Gandelman, meanwhile, is quoting Howard Fineman and suggesting that 2006 may be our nastiest political season yet. I don't take issue with any of it except Fineman's claim that only a few in the executive branch knew about the NSA's surveillance of international calls--we know that's not true at all.
And that brings up what to me look like very bad signs for Democrats: I begin to suspect that they may wind up losing seats once again. This is not a "wish fulfillment" prediction. It's simply what I begin to think: moderate losses in the House and probably the Senate for the Democrats.
It's important to understand that this would be odd. Historically, elections in non-Presidential years typically yield gains for whichever party is out of power in the White House. So we would expect 2002 and 2006 to go fairly well for Democrats, what with a Republican in the White House. If the Democrats were in power in the White House, the Republicans could expect to do moderately well in the off-year elections.
In recent memory there have been only two off-year elections which did not follow that pattern: 1998 and 2002. In 1998, an angry, rhetoric-bomb-throwing Republican congress that engineered multiple government shutdowns got spanked by voters; in a year when they should have picked up anywhere from 4 to 30 seats in the House, they lost 5. This was such an embarrassment that Newt Gingrich resigned as Speaker of the House.
The other exception was 2002, where Democrats were spanked for perceived weakness on national security. It wasn't entirely fair, as their leaders in the House and Senate had helped pass the Patriot Act and the Iraq war resolution. But they had held up passage of the creation of the Department of Homeland Security because they wanted to make sure DHS employees could unionize. The President also hit the campaign trail hard and talked about not just about the need to form a Department of Homeland Security, but a lot of other issues, including judges and social security reform. It fired up his base, and demoralized Democrats.
The Democrats came back in 2004 full of rage and bitter acrimony, embracing Michael Moore's vicious Fahrenheit 9/11, Howard Dean's hordes of internet-based Bush-haters, and the MoveOn.org crowd--and not only lost decisively in the Presidential election, but lost even more House and Senate seats.
Now historical forces would seem to suggest 2006 will be good for Democrats. After all, Bush's approval ratings are below 50%. But what are Democrats doing? Apparently, they're doing their level best to look weak and untrustworthy on national security.
They're holding up renewal of the Patriot Act--yes, with the help of a few Republicans, but it's mostly their issue and everybody knows it. Furthermore, they're trying to make major hay out of the NSA monitoring overseas phone calls. This is unbelievably dumb. I'll go on record right now and make a prediction: the vast majority of Americans will turn out to be glad the NSA is monitoring international calls for terrorist activity, and will vote against anyone who wants to require a judge's warrant for each and every target being monitored.
Election day will be November 7, 2006. Go on, quote that prediction back at me come November 8. Voters will not vote for the party that pledges to require warrants in order to listen in on international phone calls that might help identify and kill terrorists overseas. Indeed, they'll vote to punish whichever party demands such a thing.
Oh, and Heaven help the Democrats if there is another successful terrorist attack any time in the next 11 months. The Republicans will immediately blame Democrats, accusing them of gutting national security by holding up renewal of the Patriot Act, and of hamstringing a vital National Security program to monitor international phone calls. They'll be absolutely merciless about it--and Democrats will be unable to come up with a retort that resonates with voters.
Think I'm wrong? We'll get a chance to find out, as Democrats seem convinced that they need to make this their issue. If they do, and if they keep uttering the word "impeachment," the Republicans will have a very successful Get Out The Vote effort in '06, and moderate voters will, once again, find themselves thinking that Democrats simply do not take national security seriously.
This is not my wish, by the way. It's a prediction. I won't feel elated if I'm right, or crushed if I'm wrong. It's just what I see happening.
My advice for the Democrats would be to stop this immediately. This should be an easy needle for them to thread. Here's what my recommendations would look like for Democrats:
1) Come out and loudly embrace the idea of the NSA monitoring international phone traffic to help locate terrorists and kill them, without warrants. State openly that you think this is a terrific idea. However, demand a bipartisan congressional and judicial review panel that will monitor how these calls are used to prevent abuse of the rights of innocent Americans. Make clear that you think this is a tremendously good idea, but no President should be able to make these choices unilaterally. (Bush isn't really doing it unilaterally, but no one will object to greater oversight.)
2) Repudiate the notion that we're going to simply unilaterally withdraw from Iraq. Keep making noises about working hard to get the Iraqis self-sufficient so they don't need our help anymore. Sure we're already doing that, but make it very clear that this is absolutely what you want.
3) By taking national security away from Repoublicans, Democrats can concentrate on economic security for the middle class, which is what's really on voters' minds at home. "Terrorists: we will work with the President to do whatever it takes to find them and kill them. Now, let's talk about jobs..."
In short: the more Democrats try to take on the Republicans on national security, the worse they'll look. The more Democrats talk like Republicans are dangerous, the more like dangerous lunatics the Democrats look themselves.
The average voter can see the obvious: the NSA's program to monitor overseas calls in order to find and kill terrorists is not a threat to any American's liberty. Curtailing our ability to find and kill terrorists is a threat to all our liberty. Most voters will make that calculation in their own heads, and Democrats are fools to deny it.
Update: