Dean's World

prediction: Obama takes Wisconsin, Texas

Aziz P

It's a tight race in Wisconsin but I think Obama will eke out a win here. Given the way the primary mechanics work in Texas, I also think that Obama is going to win there, largely because Clinton's campaign didn't seem to be paying attention (and truthfully never expected to have to fight beyond Super Tuesday).

In Ohio, even though the polls show Obama slightly ahead, I still think Hillary has an advantage. Let's see how it all pans out. The chips begin to fall tomorrow.

BTW I have launched yet another blog, devoted to Wisconsin life and politics. Stop by, Arnold :)

Posted by Aziz P | Permalink | Technorati Trackbacks

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Dean Esmay:

If he takes Texas, I think it's all over for Senator Clinton.

2.18.2008 2:29pm

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Aziz (mail) (www):

Dean, i havent done the math recently but i think its going to come down to the superdelegates no matter what. if cinton loses texas AND ohio, she will have enormous pressure to withdraw, but i dont think that she will lose both.

2.18.2008 2:31pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

I don't think Hillary wins another state. The Mo-bama is just too strong.

And the delegates are going to go his way too.

2.18.2008 2:37pm

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jaymaster (mail):

Aziz,

I think you are finally right!

2.18.2008 2:46pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

its going to come down to the superdelegates no matter what.

Yes, that's already nearly a mathematical certainty.

2.18.2008 3:08pm

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Stace:

Although there probably won't be enough to make a difference, quite a few Texas Republicans are considering voting for Hillary in the primary, just to exacerbate the Dems' dilemma. Apparently the Dems have a caucus as well as a primary in Texas. I have no idea how all this works. There's never been a presidential primary in Texas that mattered as long as I've been voting.

2.18.2008 3:20pm

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Scott Kirwin (mail) (www):

Stace

quite a few Texas Republicans are considering voting for Hillary in the primary, just to exacerbate the Dems' dilemma.

As a Republican I think that's funny; as an American, I cringe. Honestly I want someone on the other side who doesn't have less executive experience than your average primary school principal, and who isn't building a cult of personality around him.

2.18.2008 3:54pm

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Dean Esmay:

The irony is that between McCain, Obama, and Clinton, Clinton's got the most executive experience. And it's pitifully little.

2.18.2008 4:02pm

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Dean Esmay:

Michael Barone, who may be a moderate Republican but is scrupulously honest and good at electoral math, handicaps Senator Clinton's odds. Using the most favorable possible assumptions, she can still take it in a squeaker.

2.18.2008 4:25pm

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McKiernan:

Our former president, Mr. Clinton spent today, President's day in San Francisco and Silicon Valley environs for private funding raising events in homes and estates of significant Santa Clara County and San Francisco movers and shakers and corporate ?CEO's, re: Portola Valley, Saratoga, etc.

Whether or not such funding raising is due to previous Mr. Clinton political pressures/indebtedness or no is not advailable at this time.

2.18.2008 8:26pm

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Arnold Harris (mail):

Aziz, thanks for the invite. I'll take you up on it. It's a lot easier arguing or agreeing with you on a blogsite than it is driving to Marshfield through blizzards to do it up front and close by.

(Do the english language words "argue" and "agree" have any common root?)

Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI

2.19.2008 8:50am

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