Who or What?
Dave Price
Isn't it interesting that the breakdowns in voting patterns that pollsters and pundits talk about tend to be idea-based for Republicans ("conservatives are going for Romney," "Huckabee is garnering support from evangelicals") and identity-based for Democrats ("Obama is leading among blacks," "Clinton's lead among white women is shrinking")?
One wonders how independents will go in the general when faced with that "who or what" question. Obama looks to be in good condition to win the primary, but due to all the media fawning he has the "media cocoon" problem that was fatal to John Kerry: his record has not been heavily scrutinized to this point, and as others have noted that may hurt him in the general, especially among those who like the idea of electing an African-American but aren't comfortable with someone as far left as Obama.
That's kinda funny you should put it that way Dave, because so far this election cycle my questions have been "when, and why?"
I think the big unmentionable is not race or gender but class.
Obama is from a particular social class. I think class is a more powerful predictor of outcomes.
I mean, how would it work:
...while males with a full head of gray hair find themselves torn between Mitt Romney and John McCain. "I mean, said Bill Fitzer, as a white male with a full head of gray hair, I just don't know if I should support McCain, with his kind of wimpy gray hair, or Romney with all that great brown hair."
Yes, that was the point. The Democrat race has largely been one of identity, not policy.
On the other hand, Dave, I have to say that I tend to think of evangelicals as more of an identity group than an idea group. I have many friends and relatives in that world, and it's very much a tribalist thing with a lot of them, as religion so often is.
What differentiates religion from identity is that you can change your religion.
Religion is an idea. Gender and race are generally permanent physical qualities.
There's some truth to Snippet's point, but otoh the lack of diverse race/gender among the candidates doesn't necessarily equate to an inability on their part to pander by demographic. Politics on the left is swirled and roiled by a collection of identity groups: the NAACP, NOW, etc.
It was interesting to see a Latina supporter talk about what "Clinton has done for Hispanics." Can you imagine a Republican standing up and saying "Vote for McCain, because he's done so much for whites?"
"As a (anything but straight white male)..."
As a colorless person, I am starting to give up hope for the whole "colorblind society" thing, and I sometimes feel like a sucker for having bought into it this long.
Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.
Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.