Dean's World

Romney-Huck '08?

Aziz P

If Huck can stay hot on McCain's tail in February, we might see an interesting scenario play out in March or April. I explain at Nation-Building.

Posted by Aziz P | Permalink | Technorati Trackbacks

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DanielH:

I don't think the Evangelicals would want their own playing second fiddle -- plus Huck would have more delegates by then -- so maybe the more likely possibility is Huck-Romney.

2.11.2008 10:40am

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Aziz (mail) (www):

I have to disagree - the evangelicals will be appeased just by virtue ofhaving disposed of McCain. Plus, the electoral math is clear, thatHuck wont have enough delegates to win no matter what. Romney is sitting pretty for 2012, given his martyrs speech at CPAC. Huck's only route to the white house is on someone elses coattails. Romney doesnt need huck, he can stay low till next cycle and return as the Saviour of the party. Huck will never have that insider leverage.

2.11.2008 11:01am

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Dave Justus (mail) (www):

First, McCain will win the nomination outright. Done deal. Second, even if in some way he wasn't going to, I am pretty sure Romney would support him over Huckabee, and most of Romeny's delegates would too. Huckabee isn't going to be the nominee or the VP nominee.

2.11.2008 11:18am

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jaymaster (mail):

Aziz,

I think you need to move back to a warmer climate. That cold air is affecting your brain cells!

2.11.2008 11:34am

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Dean Esmay:

Although the odds are against it, the scenario Aziz lays out is not impossible. Which, while I have an intense dislike of Huckabee and no real love for the used car salesman Romney, still delights me at a certain level as a spectator. This has been the most interesting primary season we've seen in quite a few election cycles.

2.11.2008 11:37am

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TallDave (mail) (www):

the evangelicals will be appeased just by virtue ofhaving disposed of McCain.

You seem to have forgotten that Romney's a Mormon. The evangelicals may not love McCain, but they are for damned sure not going to get behind someone they view as a cultist.

2.11.2008 11:37am

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TallDave (mail) (www):

I think there's some confusion here: Romney was the candidate of the movement conservatives he pandered to; that's why so many bloggers were behind him. The evangelical wing has been Huck's constituency. They're not the same people, and they despise the other's candidate.

2.11.2008 11:40am

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Aziz (mail) (www):

yes, But Romney was splitting the evangelical vote with Huckabee prior to dropping out, and now Huckabee is picking up about half of Romney's votes after R dropped out (though that fraction may increase tomorrow and next week)

I dont see any evidence that the evangelical base en masse was biased against Romney for being Mormon. Sure, the is some antpathy outthere but youd need to cnvince me with a poll to argue that it played a major factor.

2.11.2008 11:51am

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Aziz (mail) (www):

and yeah, i am having fun with these scenarios. this is the best election cycle ever, in terms of primary drama. I apologize to those who are so drab that they'd prefer their election horeracing stenography direct from polls but frankly the speculation is part of the fun for those of us who still manage to remain excited by the democratic process.

2.11.2008 11:53am

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DanielH:

Aziz,

I haven't seen the exit polls, but I doubt Huck and Romney evenly split the southern evangelical vote on Super Tuesday. I know it happened in Michigan, but there's a difference between the Dutch Reform evangelicals of western Michigan and the Southern Baptist evangelicals of, well, the South. Plus Romney is a native son of Michigan, so it gives him some added street cred there.

2.11.2008 12:00pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

yes, But Romney was splitting the evangelical vote with Huckabee prior to dropping out

What are you basing this on? Romney was a non-factor in the Bible Belt.

2.11.2008 12:02pm

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DanielH:

But I agree -- this election season IS rather fun.

For instance: did anyone else notice how, though McCain won Washington with 26%, Ron Paul was a very close third with 21?

What's up with Washington?

2.11.2008 12:03pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

I dont see any evidence that the evangelical base en masse was biased against Romney for being Mormon.

I don't know, "bias" probably isn't quite the right word. It's their core belief and their central guiding principle. Christian evangelicals don't have any obligation to vote for someone who doesn't share their core beliefs.

2.11.2008 12:10pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

What's up with Washington?

Paul did well in Alaska and ND too iirc.

The West is still very libertarian.

2.11.2008 12:11pm

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TallDave (mail) (www):

Aziz,

Look at Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. Romney barely registers. McCain was probably getting more evangelical support than Romney.

And Romney does very well in Utah, a Mormon state, while Huckabee gets nada. Again, core beliefs.

2.11.2008 12:18pm

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Maniakes (mail) (www):

Washington's Feb 9 vote was a caucus, and with Romney out it's widely regarded as a foregone conclusion that McCain will be the nominee. There's also a primary on the 19th, and I expect most McCain backers are content to mail in their ballots and skip the caucus (you participate in both, but that requires spending a saturday afternoon caucusing rather than just filling in a bubble and licking an envelope). Just about everyone who showed up at my caucus site was there to send a message against McCain, and Huckabee and Paul were the only other candidates still in the race. Looking at the state numbers, a lot of "undeclared" and "Romney" delegates got elected to the next stage of the process (there's three tiers of caucuses and conventions) as well.

The Paul vote in Washington is mostly the segment of the Republican base that likes neither McCain nor Huckabee.

2.11.2008 12:19pm

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Hank Barnes (mail) (www):

Romney-Huck?

Is this one more of Aziz's famous political predictions!

HB

2.11.2008 4:36pm

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