Dean's World

ARG: Rudy Now Leading NH, Iowa, and SC

Dave Price

Very narrowly, but this is big news if it holds up. I've been hearing Rudy hadn't been campaigning much in the traditional early states before, but is now spending money in them.

Meanwhile, Fred is off to a slow start, and his wife is reportedly clashing with senior campaign staff. One really has to wonder if he has the marital fortitude and personal stamina necessary for what would be a grueling Presidential run.

And let us not forget Ron Paul, ever-glorious in presumptive defeat. Ron Paul Ron Paul Ron Paul!

Posted by Dave Price | Permalink | Technorati Trackbacks

(link)

Scott Kirwin (mail) (www):

And let us not forget Ron Paul

Isn't he a transvestite disco singer?

7.31.2007 2:50pm

(link)

Tom Hawkson:

Hmmm. Didn't the Subway series have poor ratings, nationwide? Would a Subway Election have similar issues?

Yours,
Wince

7.31.2007 2:51pm

(link)

TallDave (mail) (www):

True, if the 2008 election gets low enough ratings, they might cancel the next one.

Or at least have to renegotiate their TV contract.

7.31.2007 3:10pm

(link)

Tom Hawkson:

They won't cancel the election, they'll cancel the TV coverage. People will vote in Hawaii. And I'll get more sleep.

Yours,
Wince

7.31.2007 5:45pm

(link)

Casey Tompkins (mail) (www):

Dave, Dave, Dave... You really eat up all those "Fred has problems" rumors, don't you? The man hasn't even officially announced yet, and the primaries are next year! Sheesh.

BTW, are you going to cover all the "McCain's campaign is in trouble" rumors as enthusiastically? 'Cuz after all, half the talking heads seem to think he's already got one foot in the electoral grave.

Fred had a slow start, eh? I'll take my lead from Captain Ed, who had some cogent observations here. Some context:

The situation needs a little historical context, the Thompson campaign insists. They sent around a response just a few minutes ago, pointing out that Thompson did pretty well -- compared to the exploratory fundraising of the current frontrunners. Rudy Giuliani only raised $258,660 in his first 30 days, and John McCain pulled in $1,130,351 in his first month. They also point out that Mitt Romney loaned his campaign $850,000 during the exploratory phase.

Maybe they had even slower starts?

Later, Ed Morrissey says

I recall hearing that the expectation out of the gate was $5 million, which would have been a substantial number for a non-candidate. That number may not have come from the Fred campaign itself but political analysts gauging what Fred would need for a running start. In that sense, three million would be disappointing, but that's only if one buys that analysis. Given his status and the limitations of his fundraising activities, this is not a bad number.

We already know the Q2 fundraising for the current candidates. Extrapolating his fundraising to a full quarter, Fred would have raised $9 million as a non-candidate. That's what John Edwards raised in Q2 as a top-tier Democratic candidate, and only $2 million below John McCain. Had he met the $5 million goal, he would have outraised Romney and come just below Giuliani.

By that measure, if $3 million is a slow start, I'd hate to see Fred burn rubber. Heh.

8.1.2007 12:40am

(link)

TallDave (mail) (www):

Casey,

When senior campaign staff are bailing and they're missing fundraising targets badly, yes, there are problems.

Fred's team can't spin them away by pretending he's a "non-candidate."

8.1.2007 1:21pm

(link)

Vic Stein (mail):

The primaries aren't in a year, they are basically 5 months away. That's very little time, political organizing and fundraising speaking. Winning the bigs takes some serious on the ground organizing and organizations, and you can't start that sort of stuff late in the game. Heck, in just few months, all the major media buy slots are going to start getting taken up. You HAVE to have cash on hand to play there. Time is running out very rapidly. Not to say that Thompson is already out of the game, but he's going to have to really kick up big time if he wants to get this going.

8.1.2007 2:11pm

(link)

Casey Tompkins (mail) (www):

TallDave, McCain's campaign has seen some serious staff changes recently, yet few are accusing his effort as failing. In fact, common wisdom seems to be shifting to the idea that Mac has gotten his "second wind."

As for fundraising targets, when did Fred's team announce they were going for more than $3 million in thirty days?

Vic, there's still time for Fred to pick up staff; see the above instance of McCain's re-organization, for example. Also recall that not everything is set in concrete. It's quite possible that major players could change alliance before (say) November this year.

One of Fred's selling points is that he "gets" the new media. Howard Dean and Barak Obama have blazed a path which he follows. To put it another way: this isn't your father's campaign organization... We aren't limited to 3 networks and major-market print publications, and haven't been for a while. It took time for politicians to grasp the new reality, in the same way it took military professionals some time to grasp (or should I say grok?) developments such as smokeless powder, quick-firing indirect artillery, semi-automatic weapons, and the internal combustion engine.

Dean showed how one could create effective new methods of fundraising, while re-engaging every-day citizens in the process. Obama's network (yourspace, isn't it?) is already wide spread, and shows promise for future fundraising. It hasn't yet been called on to demonstrate great resilience, or "strong bones."

Fred has followed that same path, and demonstrated at least some facility in using the new media, including his site "www.ImWithFred.com" In fact, while double-checking the URL, I noticed that Fred includes a nifty "call talk radio" menu where you select your state, then your media market, whereupon you get a full listing of local talk radio stations, including station ID, phone number, city, and 9-digit zip code. That kind of contact info is very useful for local activity.

8.1.2007 10:42pm

Commenting on Dean's World is a privilege, not a right. Dean is your host, you are his guest, and you should behave in that fashion. Dean is not your babysitter, nor is he your punching bag. Please remember this. In general, you are free to disagree with anyone on any subject you wish, but abusive behavior will not be tolerated.

Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.

Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.