The simple truth is that we are in all likelihood going to withdraw no matter who gets elected in 2008.
No we aren't, unless things have stabilized.
Most people don't yet realize how much worse things can get. If we start withdrawing and suddenly hundreds of people are dying every day instead of dozens and AQ is triumphantly raising its flag across Sunni Arab Iraq, there is going to be a pause to reconsider.
Did anyone else get whiplash when he insinuated we can't know the future, then proceeded to tell us what that future will "in all likelihood" be? Where's John Edwards when you need him?
I've had the same thoughts myself. Except: it turns out that the policymakers of today and of the future are still reading. And that's why it still matters.
Here is my position on the Iraq War and its status. Broadly speaking there were three objectives of the Iraq war.
1) Get rid of Saddam. He was a “bad guy”. He was abusing the Iraqi people. He had started two wars of aggression, and threatened other countries. He was defying UN sanctions.
Status: mission accomplished.
2) Find and destroy Iraqi WMDs before they can be given to terrorist.
Status: Kind of an embarrassment. UN weapons inspectors couldn’t find them before the war, and we couldn’t find them after the war.
2) Create a liberal, secular democracy in Iraq as a model for the Middle East.
Status: controversial. Somewhere between “work in progress” and “failure”. I would argue that the “as a model for the Middle East” part is a total failure. No one in their right mind would look at Iraq today and say they wanted the same thing to happen in their country.
Iraq is a country that the British created out of some pieces of the Ottoman Empire in the 1920s. It has been held together since with brutal repression of dissent. There was an argument before the war and continuing now as to whether there was enough of an Iraqi identity to hold Iraq together without brutal repression. The answer at this moment seems to be probably not. Some would argue that if the occupation had been handled better, this would not have happened. Others would argue this was always going to happen anyway. Historians can argue about this for generations, but it doesn’t really matter now. It has happened and that is the reality.
Almost everyone says if we leave Iraq in the near future, there will be a civil war in Iraq. There already is a low-grade civil war in Iraq, but they mean a real civil war with a lot more killing. The US military is currently keeping this a low-grade civil war rather than a full blown one. That is definitely reducing the violence and killing, but what is it accomplishing? Is there any hope of Iraq converging to some kind of peaceful power sharing arrangement that would allow it to continue as a single stable country?
The current Iraqi government does not seem to be interested. The surge is supposed to buy time for the Iraqi government to do something it seems to have no interest in doing. Rick Moran of the Rightwing Nuthouse blog has figured this out here and here . I think Aziz knows this. Many war opponents understand this, and their solution is to withdraw and let the Iraqis have their civil war. Yes a lot of people will be killed, but sometimes civil war is the only way to settle issues.
The current surge is just a plan to tread water in Iraq while hoping that the Iraqi government decides to finally do something it has no desire to do. As Rick Moran has recognized, the American people are not going to keep treading water in Iraq year after year. There needs to be another plan, or the total withdrawal plan will win by default.
I feel like we are indeed missing part of the "big picture", so to speak. He's right. There ARE things beyond our ken ...
Did he quit smoking cold-turkey yesterday? Because I've heard that can make people SERIOUSLY cranky. Maybe his wife left him and took all the coffee. Or worse, secretly switched it to decaf. Maybe he has a cold. Maybe his dog died. Maybe he's sleep-deprived because his neighbors dogs barked all night. Maybe "he" is really a woman and fully entitled to the PMS-Defense! Or not. Sure, ridicule me for just saying out loud what some of us were thinking ...
I remember being told in 2004 Iraqis wouldn't vote or wanted a theocracy. In 2005 we learned they couldn't form a government or agree on a constitution. The Anbari tribes were never going to join the police.
If Rick Moran really thinks the Kurds are just waiting for us to leave so they can declare their Kurdish state, he doesn't understand the region's political situation very well. . Everyone, especially the Kurds, knows that would mean invasion from Turkey. The Kurds want a PERMANENT American presence.
Martin, my post was written to mirror the tone of everyone else lately. I'm just sick of the intellectual whiplash (even though I honor Dean for creating a venue in which such diverse points of view can coexist. Not exactly peaceably, but coexist nevertheless).
The line you take rightful exception to is in fact me parroting the attitude of others, Perhaps it shoudl have snark tags about it.
At any rate, I know you dont know whats going on. I know I dont either, but i do know where people who DO know whats going on better than me, or you, are. I can point you to them. That doesnt mean I am qualified to join their deliberations. Nor does it mean you are qualified to critique them. You and I, Martin, are wankers. Ok?
And to any extent in which I blame Bush for anthing, it is precisely beause point #3 got such pathetic support in the argument for war and the execution of postwar.
Lucy, I've got a 1 week newborn, so my sleep is erratic of late. Maybe thats the reason. At any rate, i wrote this pst in literally 90 seconds, from brain straight to keyboard, as a primal scream. I might well look at it tomorrow, think "ugh" and replace it with "They're taking the Hobbits to Isengard".
At any ratef you want to see blogging by myself which is less insane, then stop by my haibane.info blog and see me in my natural habitat instead.
Well that certainly clarifies things. Get some sleep Aziz, and if it makes you feel better, by the time they are six you will start being able to sleep an entire night. %^}
bob, the irony is that the 5 year old is now totally self sufficient in terms of sleep. literally, my guard was down. its insane.
in the meantime, i dabbled i Red Bull and then settled on Rockstar. Of course in addition to 4 cups of coffee a day. I am contemptous of most chai; though at haibane.info i plan to post my recipie for a new drink I shall name, "choffee".
Hokie, yeah thats exactly what I was doing. You got me. Dean, give Hokie my keys.
McK, Dean didnt ask me to do that and in fact woudl have preferred I ddnt, but I have this thing about stepping on my blog host toes. I wasnt aware that Dean had history with Orac and once that came out in the comment thread, I pulled mine immediately because as far as I am concerned, it crossed a line I draw around myself (not one that Dean drew, mind you) as a guest poster here. I frackin' hate the blogwar crap and will do my best to avoid perpetuating them, as best as I can determine how. It might have been ill advised but i did keep a copy for posterity at Nation Building (which I had better not link to, lest hokieboy m'accuse again.)
incidentally, Dean's World is way cooler than Haibane.info. But of late, my own blogging there has been far superior to my own blogging here.
If you read the NYT story carefully, you will notice that the Anbar tribal leaders are not working with the Americans because they have been brought around to believing in the current Iraqi government or out of new found respect for the Americans. It is because at the moment they view Al Qaeda in Iraq as a bigger threat to them than the Americans or the Shite dominated government in Baghdad. This certainly is an opportunity for the Americans and the Iraqi government to build a longer-term relationship, but it is an opportunity the Iraq government will have to act upon. Right now the Iraq government shows no interest in acting on issues like allowing Baathist back in government, oil revenue sharing or the constitutional changes the Sunni have been demanding. I also expect that the Anbar tribal leaders will demand a US withdrawal timetable.
Al Qaeda has screwed up badly in Anbar. Now the Iraqi government needs to make some moves to capitalize on that.
lol guyz.....its so much worse than that.
Iraq is just the latest instantiation of the Forever War...the war between biology and the rule of law.
The genetics and memetics that benefited our ancestors in the EEA still persist; warfighting, kinship promotion, rape, murder.....
We cant scrub those out of the genome. The rule of law is the only thing that mitigates them. Every day in Iraq is Virginia Tech. Every day in Somalia is 0klahoma City. Everyday in Rwanda was the Twin Towers.
The Viet Nam war was multidimensional...two dimensions, political and miltary. Iraq is 3 dimensional...mil, pol, and the info-war fought in the media. The next instantiation will be 4 dimensional....all the above plus nukes.
We can kick the ball down the field for our kids, like our parents and grandparents did with Viet Nam. We can go Fortress America and build a big wall, hunker down an grow our own. But the Reavers will come for us eventually.....never doubt it.
It doesnt matter how we got into Iraq. Its irrelevent. The Forever War is continuous. It goes on whether we fight or not. It will continue until the triumph of the rule of law, or the triumph of the Reavers.
I dont see us having the stones for this fight. Im with Aziz.....an im profoundly depressed.
I think.....our only real choice is to fight hard now....or fight much harder later.
Man! Aziz, you've got to pace yourself. The three-week-old growth spurt is coming! Feedings every two hours or so for about 36 hours. *shudder* Friends of ours just gave up sleeping, and did a video-marathon. Good luck!
Remember, sure your post was a little cranky. But it could have been worse. You could have started blogging Barney lyrics ... "Ohhhh, I love you. You love meeeeee. We're good friends like friends should be ...."
I think this is the most offensive post I have EVER seen on DW. So congratulations.
4.30.2007 7:47pm
Commenting on Dean's World is a privilege, not a right. Dean is your host, you are his guest, and you should behave in that fashion. Dean is not your babysitter, nor is he your punching bag. Please remember this. In general, you are free to disagree with anyone on any subject you wish, but abusive behavior will not be tolerated.
Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.
Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.
No we aren't, unless things have stabilized.
Most people don't yet realize how much worse things can get. If we start withdrawing and suddenly hundreds of people are dying every day instead of dozens and AQ is triumphantly raising its flag across Sunni Arab Iraq, there is going to be a pause to reconsider.
You're telling me that the post about Giant Nazi Robots is dogmatic? I mean, I guess it's self-Godwinned, but still...
I've had the same thoughts myself. Except: it turns out that the policymakers of today and of the future are still reading. And that's why it still matters.
Who's Sorry Now
But not beyond your ken. Got it.
I take back my earlier comments on another thread: you can be every bit as arrogant and condescending as Ali.
1) Get rid of Saddam. He was a “bad guy”. He was abusing the Iraqi people. He had started two wars of aggression, and threatened other countries. He was defying UN sanctions.
Status: mission accomplished.
2) Find and destroy Iraqi WMDs before they can be given to terrorist.
Status: Kind of an embarrassment. UN weapons inspectors couldn’t find them before the war, and we couldn’t find them after the war.
2) Create a liberal, secular democracy in Iraq as a model for the Middle East.
Status: controversial. Somewhere between “work in progress” and “failure”. I would argue that the “as a model for the Middle East” part is a total failure. No one in their right mind would look at Iraq today and say they wanted the same thing to happen in their country.
Iraq is a country that the British created out of some pieces of the Ottoman Empire in the 1920s. It has been held together since with brutal repression of dissent. There was an argument before the war and continuing now as to whether there was enough of an Iraqi identity to hold Iraq together without brutal repression. The answer at this moment seems to be probably not. Some would argue that if the occupation had been handled better, this would not have happened. Others would argue this was always going to happen anyway. Historians can argue about this for generations, but it doesn’t really matter now. It has happened and that is the reality.
Almost everyone says if we leave Iraq in the near future, there will be a civil war in Iraq. There already is a low-grade civil war in Iraq, but they mean a real civil war with a lot more killing. The US military is currently keeping this a low-grade civil war rather than a full blown one. That is definitely reducing the violence and killing, but what is it accomplishing? Is there any hope of Iraq converging to some kind of peaceful power sharing arrangement that would allow it to continue as a single stable country?
The current Iraqi government does not seem to be interested. The surge is supposed to buy time for the Iraqi government to do something it seems to have no interest in doing. Rick Moran of the Rightwing Nuthouse blog has figured this out here and here . I think Aziz knows this. Many war opponents understand this, and their solution is to withdraw and let the Iraqis have their civil war. Yes a lot of people will be killed, but sometimes civil war is the only way to settle issues.
The current surge is just a plan to tread water in Iraq while hoping that the Iraqi government decides to finally do something it has no desire to do. As Rick Moran has recognized, the American people are not going to keep treading water in Iraq year after year. There needs to be another plan, or the total withdrawal plan will win by default.
Did he quit smoking cold-turkey yesterday? Because I've heard that can make people SERIOUSLY cranky. Maybe his wife left him and took all the coffee. Or worse, secretly switched it to decaf. Maybe he has a cold. Maybe his dog died. Maybe he's sleep-deprived because his neighbors dogs barked all night. Maybe "he" is really a woman and fully entitled to the PMS-Defense! Or not. Sure, ridicule me for just saying out loud what some of us were thinking ...
"What?"
"I said, you are drinking Colombian decaf coffee crystals!"
"Why.. you.. son of a bitch! You no good... damn... son of a bitch!!"
Yes.
I remember being told in 2004 Iraqis wouldn't vote or wanted a theocracy. In 2005 we learned they couldn't form a government or agree on a constitution. The Anbari tribes were never going to join the police.
If Rick Moran really thinks the Kurds are just waiting for us to leave so they can declare their Kurdish state, he doesn't understand the region's political situation very well. . Everyone, especially the Kurds, knows that would mean invasion from Turkey. The Kurds want a PERMANENT American presence.
The line you take rightful exception to is in fact me parroting the attitude of others, Perhaps it shoudl have snark tags about it.
At any rate, I know you dont know whats going on. I know I dont either, but i do know where people who DO know whats going on better than me, or you, are. I can point you to them. That doesnt mean I am qualified to join their deliberations. Nor does it mean you are qualified to critique them. You and I, Martin, are wankers. Ok?
And to any extent in which I blame Bush for anthing, it is precisely beause point #3 got such pathetic support in the argument for war and the execution of postwar.
Lucy, I've got a 1 week newborn, so my sleep is erratic of late. Maybe thats the reason. At any rate, i wrote this pst in literally 90 seconds, from brain straight to keyboard, as a primal scream. I might well look at it tomorrow, think "ugh" and replace it with "They're taking the Hobbits to Isengard".
At any ratef you want to see blogging by myself which is less insane, then stop by my haibane.info blog and see me in my natural habitat instead.
Well that certainly clarifies things. Get some sleep Aziz, and if it makes you feel better, by the time they are six you will start being able to sleep an entire night. %^}
I agree. Let's shut down the blogs.
in the meantime, i dabbled i Red Bull and then settled on Rockstar. Of course in addition to 4 cups of coffee a day. I am contemptous of most chai; though at haibane.info i plan to post my recipie for a new drink I shall name, "choffee".
Why did you pull the Orac post ?
McK, Dean didnt ask me to do that and in fact woudl have preferred I ddnt, but I have this thing about stepping on my blog host toes. I wasnt aware that Dean had history with Orac and once that came out in the comment thread, I pulled mine immediately because as far as I am concerned, it crossed a line I draw around myself (not one that Dean drew, mind you) as a guest poster here. I frackin' hate the blogwar crap and will do my best to avoid perpetuating them, as best as I can determine how. It might have been ill advised but i did keep a copy for posterity at Nation Building (which I had better not link to, lest hokieboy m'accuse again.)
incidentally, Dean's World is way cooler than Haibane.info. But of late, my own blogging there has been far superior to my own blogging here.
If you read the NYT story carefully, you will notice that the Anbar tribal leaders are not working with the Americans because they have been brought around to believing in the current Iraqi government or out of new found respect for the Americans. It is because at the moment they view Al Qaeda in Iraq as a bigger threat to them than the Americans or the Shite dominated government in Baghdad. This certainly is an opportunity for the Americans and the Iraqi government to build a longer-term relationship, but it is an opportunity the Iraq government will have to act upon. Right now the Iraq government shows no interest in acting on issues like allowing Baathist back in government, oil revenue sharing or the constitutional changes the Sunni have been demanding. I also expect that the Anbar tribal leaders will demand a US withdrawal timetable.
Al Qaeda has screwed up badly in Anbar. Now the Iraqi government needs to make some moves to capitalize on that.
Iraq is just the latest instantiation of the Forever War...the war between biology and the rule of law.
The genetics and memetics that benefited our ancestors in the EEA still persist; warfighting, kinship promotion, rape, murder.....
We cant scrub those out of the genome. The rule of law is the only thing that mitigates them. Every day in Iraq is Virginia Tech. Every day in Somalia is 0klahoma City. Everyday in Rwanda was the Twin Towers.
The Viet Nam war was multidimensional...two dimensions, political and miltary. Iraq is 3 dimensional...mil, pol, and the info-war fought in the media. The next instantiation will be 4 dimensional....all the above plus nukes.
We can kick the ball down the field for our kids, like our parents and grandparents did with Viet Nam. We can go Fortress America and build a big wall, hunker down an grow our own. But the Reavers will come for us eventually.....never doubt it.
It doesnt matter how we got into Iraq. Its irrelevent. The Forever War is continuous. It goes on whether we fight or not. It will continue until the triumph of the rule of law, or the triumph of the Reavers.
I dont see us having the stones for this fight. Im with Aziz.....an im profoundly depressed.
I think.....our only real choice is to fight hard now....or fight much harder later.
Remember, sure your post was a little cranky. But it could have been worse. You could have started blogging Barney lyrics ... "Ohhhh, I love you. You love meeeeee. We're good friends like friends should be ...."
Great. Now I've got that song stuck in my head :(
If you live between two hostile neighbours who are constantly at each others throats, you are not likely to have a quiet life.
Strong measures were pursued to enforce the law and there was, after centuries of disorder, a will to see that the law was enforced. Wanted men were hunted down and executed.
Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.
Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.