Setting a timetable to withdraw from Iraq will make it more difficult to properly withdraw from Iraq.
As we recently learned, US officials in Iraq have negotiated with some of the insurgent factions, presumably the "Please leave our country" factions rather than the "We're gonna behead everybody" factions.
And we can probably assume that Iraq is not going to be a peaceable place until some accord is reached with those insurgent factions that are willing to negotiate in good faith with the Iraqi government and/or the US forces in Iraq.
Americans' best bargaining chip there is troops' presence and absence -- that is, the ability to say "we could possibly leave Iraq if you lay down your arms, heop put an end to kidnappings, and treat Prime Minister Maliki to kebabs every two weeks."
I'm not saying that US troops should necessarily withdraw from Iraq on a given date, or even that the insurgency as a whole may be negotiated with. Just that it may be possible to disrupt the patchwork of insurgent organizations with some selective negotiation, and that American negotiators need every bargaining chip available.
If the US Congress sets a definite, public withdrawal date, then the Congress will deprive American negotiators in Iraq of their best bargianing chip ... and deprive insurgent factions of an incentive to negotiate. After all, those insurgents would then have a guarantee that the United States would leave ... no matter what they do.
--|PW|--
PS. As a semi-official left-of-center guy, it really, really pains me to write this. But somebody's gotta say it.
Brickmuppet: France is often referred to as "Le Hexagon" due to it's shape on the map. I wonder if they're subtly laying a claim on Saturn?
I watched my alma mater Georgetown lose in their Final Four game against OSU. Too many bad shots and missed rebounds, but it was still a pretty close game throughout, with numerous ties and changes of lead.
As someone who is slightly right of center (but probably very right of center when it comes to fighting terrorists), I appreciate you taking the time to state your opinion, and to describe your logic so effectively.
Personally, your point is something that is naturally and completely self evident to me. I don’t understand why it takes even a few paragraphs to explain it to so many folks. And especially why so many still don’t seem to get it after the facts are laid out so clearly before them.
You did a great job of explaining the thinking behind your conclusions. But I expect many of your political cohorts will ignore it.
President Bush just got off the phone with the Attorney General.
"....and Gonzo, you're doing a heck of a job. By the way, have you ever met my good friend Mike Brown? He knows some people in the show horse jumping field. You know, if you weren't the Attorney General, I bet you'd make a heck of an equestrian judge."
Jay: Yup. It's like having to explain over and over again why Bush did not lie, why there was no "rush to war," why no one ever said or believed that Saddam was behind 9/11, why this is a great and noble moral cause, and why we're the good guys and the "insurgents" (i.e. raping torturing anti-democratic fascist murderers) are the bad guys.
Having to explain it over and over again gets tiring. But someone needs to do it.
It's not just liberals who don't get some of this stuff. If I go on a lot of conservative sites and try to set this sort of thing out, the conservatives stop reading as soon as they see the words "negotiate" and "insurgent" in the same sentence.
Part of the reason I hang out here ... Dean's World is more laid-back than most places in the blogosphere.
An addendum. I will say that I didn't favor the Iraq intervention in the first place (for a multitude of reasons), and I do favor getting American troops out of there as soon as possible, though I expect that my definition of "as possible" doesn't really gibe with some others'. Moreover, I'm still trying to figure out whether staying in Iraq or leaving would be worse.
Electionwise, I'm most intrigued by Hillary Clinton's views on the subject. I haven't had a chance to find the definitive "Hillary Clinton on Iraq" dossier, but I've seen it hinted that she eschews some of the more emphatic rhetoric of her fellow Democratic presidential candidates because her own thoughts on the matter are considerably more complex than a simple talking point.
As a second addendum, if one of the Democratic candidates who favors a faster withdrawal is elected next November, I wonder if his policies will change when he is actually in the driver's seat and is informed of the likely consequences of such action.
--|PW|--
4.1.2007 7:55am
Commenting on Dean's World is a privilege, not a right. Dean is your host, you are his guest, and you should behave in that fashion. Dean is not your babysitter, nor is he your punching bag. Please remember this. In general, you are free to disagree with anyone on any subject you wish, but abusive behavior will not be tolerated.
Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.
Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.
Setting a timetable to withdraw from Iraq will make it more difficult to properly withdraw from Iraq.
As we recently learned, US officials in Iraq have negotiated with some of the insurgent factions, presumably the "Please leave our country" factions rather than the "We're gonna behead everybody" factions.
And we can probably assume that Iraq is not going to be a peaceable place until some accord is reached with those insurgent factions that are willing to negotiate in good faith with the Iraqi government and/or the US forces in Iraq.
Americans' best bargaining chip there is troops' presence and absence -- that is, the ability to say "we could possibly leave Iraq if you lay down your arms, heop put an end to kidnappings, and treat Prime Minister Maliki to kebabs every two weeks."
I'm not saying that US troops should necessarily withdraw from Iraq on a given date, or even that the insurgency as a whole may be negotiated with. Just that it may be possible to disrupt the patchwork of insurgent organizations with some selective negotiation, and that American negotiators need every bargaining chip available.
If the US Congress sets a definite, public withdrawal date, then the Congress will deprive American negotiators in Iraq of their best bargianing chip ... and deprive insurgent factions of an incentive to negotiate. After all, those insurgents would then have a guarantee that the United States would leave ... no matter what they do.
--|PW|--
PS. As a semi-official left-of-center guy, it really, really pains me to write this. But somebody's gotta say it.
Home of Titan, possibly the largest reservoir of hydrocarbons in the whole solar system.
Now we find out that "someone" ("cough"...MIC..."cough") has just happened to build something on its pole.....
Even worse than a Pentagon....It's a HEXAGON!
I don't think I need to elaborate....
...but I'm sure Rosie O' will.
And then I'll just be sitting here crying in my tea screaming .
"I TOLD YOU ALL!!!"
...or...um...something.
MUSHROOM MUSHROOM!!
I watched my alma mater Georgetown lose in their Final Four game against OSU. Too many bad shots and missed rebounds, but it was still a pretty close game throughout, with numerous ties and changes of lead.
MUSHROOM MUSHROOM!!
OOOOOH IT'S A SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!
In other news, my bracket is broke. Ohio State's other players showed up, Georgetown's didn't.
As someone who is slightly right of center (but probably very right of center when it comes to fighting terrorists), I appreciate you taking the time to state your opinion, and to describe your logic so effectively.
Personally, your point is something that is naturally and completely self evident to me. I don’t understand why it takes even a few paragraphs to explain it to so many folks. And especially why so many still don’t seem to get it after the facts are laid out so clearly before them.
You did a great job of explaining the thinking behind your conclusions. But I expect many of your political cohorts will ignore it.
"....and Gonzo, you're doing a heck of a job. By the way, have you ever met my good friend Mike Brown? He knows some people in the show horse jumping field. You know, if you weren't the Attorney General, I bet you'd make a heck of an equestrian judge."
Hmmmmm....
I'm just saying.
Having to explain it over and over again gets tiring. But someone needs to do it.
It's not just liberals who don't get some of this stuff. If I go on a lot of conservative sites and try to set this sort of thing out, the conservatives stop reading as soon as they see the words "negotiate" and "insurgent" in the same sentence.
Part of the reason I hang out here ... Dean's World is more laid-back than most places in the blogosphere.
--|PW|--
An addendum. I will say that I didn't favor the Iraq intervention in the first place (for a multitude of reasons), and I do favor getting American troops out of there as soon as possible, though I expect that my definition of "as possible" doesn't really gibe with some others'. Moreover, I'm still trying to figure out whether staying in Iraq or leaving would be worse.
Electionwise, I'm most intrigued by Hillary Clinton's views on the subject. I haven't had a chance to find the definitive "Hillary Clinton on Iraq" dossier, but I've seen it hinted that she eschews some of the more emphatic rhetoric of her fellow Democratic presidential candidates because her own thoughts on the matter are considerably more complex than a simple talking point.
As a second addendum, if one of the Democratic candidates who favors a faster withdrawal is elected next November, I wonder if his policies will change when he is actually in the driver's seat and is informed of the likely consequences of such action.
--|PW|--
Of course we all lose our tempers now and then. Dean freely admits to being imperfect in this regard, which is why regulars to this establishment will generally be cut more slack than people who we don't know very well.
Still: behave like an adult, or go find somewhere else to play. Thanks.