Dean's World

Via the Examiner:

BEIJI, Iraq - For more than two years the attacks came like clockwork. As soon as the military secured and workers repaired the pipelines from Iraq's northern oil fields, just when the valves were about to open, insurgents would strike. But roughly three weeks ago they suddenly stopped, letting crude oil flow freely from Iraq's vast reserves near Kirkuk.
Perhaps insurgents feared reprisals in Salahuddin province, where pipelines from Kirkuk flow to the country's largest refinery in Beiji. Maybe terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death disrupted a chain of command that ordered the attacks, military officials said.
Whatever the cause, the U.S. forces welcome the change, even if history since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 has shown the free flow of oil in Iraq is only temporary at best.
I just hope that it lasts long enough where people start realizing 'Damn, we're making money. We could be rich like Kuwaitis," said Army Lt. Col. Craig Collier, deputy commander of the 3rd Brigade, 101st Airborne Division. "But what is really going on? We don't know."

Great news that the oil is flowing freely, but sort of bad that we don't know why..

[Link thanks to Ace]

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Martin L. Shoemaker (www):

Forgive me, Mary, but I think "why" is pretty obvious. Three weeks ago, the Iraqi forces and the Coalition took down Zarqawi and a boatload of others in the al Qaeda command structure, and gathered a lot of good Intel to boot. Three weeks ago, Iraq filled the last spots in its Parliament. Two weeks ago, a letter from Zarqawi confirmed just how tough things were getting for the terrorists. Two weeks ago, the Prime Minister started discussing reconciliation plans to bring Iraqi rebels into the fold, yet at the same time insisted there would be no forgiveness for foreign terrorists nor for those who continued their hostilities. In the past week, Saddam's trial has been working to a close, and Saddam's laughable hunger strike ended faster than my last diet. The news from Iraq has its bad notes, but it has an awful lot of good notes. A lot of the terrorists have been rounded up, more have been disrupted, and more still have probably been demoralized. So I expect we've got a combination of lack of command and lack of will here on the part of the saboteurs.

And yes, that is very great news.

6.30.2006 1:55pm

Dave Schuler (mail) (www):

One descriptino I've read of how insurgencies are fought is “You fight and you fight and you fight and it looks like nothing is changing or getting any better. And then it's over.&148;

It ain't over yet but at least this is something.

6.30.2006 2:52pm

Casey Tompkins (mail) (www):

I think Martin has it about right, although I would place most of the emphasis on the reconciliation talks. It could well be that the Baathists and "nationalists" (those who see themselves as "resisting foreign occupation") see an opportunity to come in out from the cold and (as the original article puts it) get rich like Kuwaitis.

After all, one of the (under-reported) issues has been arguments amongst Iraquis on how to distribute oil income, since most of the oil is found in (northern) Kurd or (southern) Shiite areas. The middle Sunni areas are SOL, or perhaps SOO. :)

6.30.2006 3:33pm

Ted Armstrong (mail) (www):

After all, one of the (under-reported) issues has been arguments amongst Iraquis on how to distribute oil income

I think they should use the model that Alaska uses for sharing oil revenue.

6.30.2006 3:57pm

Casey,

I'll accept that the reconciliation talks are a pretty major aspect. It's carrot and stick, where carrot is "go live in peace at home and get a share of the oil wealth and a say in the government" and stick is "go join Zarqawi". You have to have a pretty fervent martyr complex to choose stick in that case. And "drive the infidels and the 'illegitimate' government out" just ain't workin'.

I also find it oddly coincidental how all of these major developments happened nearly simultaneously. It's almost, like, I dunno, planned, or something. But that can't be, because we keep hearing that there's no plan; and we keep hearing, "If we have a plan, why don't we announce it?"

Well (sarcasm off), a lot of this plan was announced, just not with specific timetables. The goals matter, the calendar dates don't, in war and in business; but also in war and in business, fools who don't know how to get anything done will sacrifice the reality of the goals for the illusion of the calendar.

And for the rest... Well, someday I expect historians to dig through newly unclassified archives and find the untold story of this war: about an Administration that would rather take political hits and even risk political failure by keeping plans under wraps, rather than make those plans public and keep political support but at a cost of losing the war itself.

6.30.2006 4:02pm

Dean Esmay:

It's amazing how the most successful American military venture in the last half-century--the liberation of Iraq--is so consistently played in the press as a near-complete disaster. Historians will undoubtedly find it fascinating.

6.30.2006 6:23pm

mariner:

Historians will undoubtedly find it fascinating.

Maybe, someday. I doubt I'll live to see it.

Historians are currently as leftist and anti-Bush as the MSM.

6.30.2006 7:16pm

maryatexitzero (mail):

Forgive me, Mary, but I think "why" is pretty obvious.

Well, I'm not the one who was wondering why. It was Army Lt. Col. Craig Collier.

I'm not sure why he said that - he might genuinely not know, or he could be doing what military men, firemen and other heroic types tend to do, modestly downplaying accomplishments. Many reporters don't understand modesty or heroism, so they might have misread him...

6.30.2006 10:40pm

TallDave (mail) (www):

This is a perfect example of one of the 10,000 little steps Iraq has to take to transform from a blood-soaked police state dotted with rape rooms into a civilized democracy. It's going to take time.

7.1.2006 1:14am