Dean's World

Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy.

Tuesday, August 8, 2006

On the Israel-Hez War and the Democratic Peace

Angie just posted this question:

Hi Professor Rummel. I've read your stuff in the past and was just wondering if you had thought about posting something that counters the recent media criticism that I've seen where someone mentioned that Israel and Lebanon are both democratic. I forgot the reporter, but it seems like someone was questioning the validity of the proposition by yourself and President Bush (I have read that he has read Natan Sharansky's book on democracy) that greater democracy is a solution to global violence.

Will you counter that question at all?

I have. My post on this is here. As to both Israel and Lebanon being democratic, see this post also.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. On the Israel-Hez War and the Democratic Peace
  2. Israel Is Already At War With Iran
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Monday, July 31, 2006

I've started responding to questions and comments that come from those participating in my blog seminar on the democratic peace, and doing my recommended readings. See here. I've just posted the first comments and my responses: "Democratic Peace Seminar Q&A #1- Internal Violence."

I will not cross-post any of this seminar, since I think it best to do it in one place. If you are interested, you can make a note to regularly check the blog or sign up for notification of postings (see the left side panel of my blog).

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A Blog Seminar On The Democratic Peace

dp chart small--click me

My assertions about the democratic peace have received appropriate skepticism and many good questions. To review, the democratic peace propositions are that:

• Democracies do not make war on each other;
• The more democratic two countries, the less likely there will be severe violence between them;
• And the more democratic a country:
• The less severe its overall foreign violence;
• The less its domestic violence;
• The less it will murder its people.
I can add that democracies do not have famines, they are the least corrupt, they are the most prosperous, and their people are the happiest. But, these are not Democratic Peace propositions, and for now, I want to stick with the propositions.

(Continued here)

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Friday, July 28, 2006

Answering Questions on the Democratic Peace

A number of questions about the democratic peace were raised on Dean's World, where I cross posted my "'Thug Regimes?' Really?" These are important and in answering them I want to further clarify the democratic peace.

(Continued here)

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Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Israel, Palestinians, Lebanon—A War among Democracies?

There is considerable violence -- what some are calling a war -- between the democratically elected Hamas Palestinian government and democratic Israel; and Israel is engaged in a war with Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon, which apparently had a democratic election in May, 2005. Is this a falsification of the democratic peace theory that democracies don't make war on each other?

(Continued here)

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. A Blog Seminar On The Democratic Peace
  2. Answering Questions on the Democratic Peace
  3. Israel, Palestinians, Lebanon—A War among Democracies?
Posted by Rudy Rummel | Permalink | 11 Comments | Technorati Trackbacks

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Why Democracy? Here's Why

I have finished reading The Democracy Advantage: How Democracies Promote Prosperity and Peace by Morton H. Halperin, Joseph T. Siegle, and Michael M. Weinstein. It is published by the Council on Foreign Relations, which is very important, for it shows that the professional foreign policy community is coming around as to why promoting democracy is central to our basic values, especially the democratic peace.

The authors discussed their book at a 3/17/05 Carnegie Council meeting, and I recommend the edited transcript to you. Most important, they argue (paraphrasing):

(Continued here)

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Monday, July 10, 2006

A Better Organization of Rummel's Blog Achive

I have reorganized my topical blog archive so that posts on the democratic peace are not only easier to find by proposition, but so that the structure of the democratic peace is easier to see. The major outline of the organization is given below:

  • INTRODUCTION

  • ON DEMOCRACY

    • AS A FORM OF GOVERNMENT

    • THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE

      • IN GENERAL

      • DEMOCRATIC PEACE CHART

      • MISUNDERSTANDINGS/MISINTERPRETATIONS/ DISTORTIONS

      • PROPOSITIONS

        • DEMOCRACIES DON'T MAKE WAR ON EACH OTHER

        • DEMOCRACIES HAVE THE LEAST SEVERE INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

          • RESULTING DECLINE IN VIOLENCE

        • DEMOCRACIES VIRTUALLY NEVER MURDER THEIR OWN CITIZENS

          • NO DEMOCRACY IS A MORTACRACY

        • DEMOCRACIES COMMIT THE LEAST TERRORISM

        • DEMOCRACY IS A METHOD OF NONVIOLENCE

    • OTHER MORAL VIRTUES AND UTILITARIAN VALUES OF DEMOCRACY

      • DEMOCRACIES NEVER HAVE FAMINES AND ARE A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF WORLD HUNGER

      • DEMOCRACIES PROMOTE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ARE A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF MASS IMPOVERISHMENT

      • DEMOCRACIES ARE LEAST CORRUPT

      • DEMOCRACY PROMOTES THE WISEST POLICIES

      • DEMOCRACY PROMOTES THE GREATEST HAPPINESS

    • ON PROMOTING DEMOCRACY

      • A FOREIGN POLICY OF

      • THE WORLD GROWTH OF DEMOCRACIES

      • DEMOCRATIZATION

  • ON FREEDOM/HUMAN RIGHTS/LIBERTY AS A CONDITION OF A PEOPLE

    • FREEDOMISM/FREEDOMIST

      • CHALLENGE AND RESPONSE

  • ON NONDEMOCRACIES/DICTATORSHIPS

  • ON GENOCIDE/DEMOCIDE (ASIDE FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE PROPOSITION)

    • Teaching Democide (also see nations below)

    • Any Democide (also see nations below)

    • Communist Democide

  • COUNTRIES/NATIONS/REGIONS

    • Afghanistan

    • Africa

    • Burma

    • Cambodia

    • China

    • Congo, Democratic Republic of

    • Iran

    • Iraq

    • Israel

    • Middle East and Muslim Africa

    • Korea, North

    • Korea, South

    • Pakistan

    • Rwanda

    • Russia/U.S.S.R.

    • Sudan

    • UN

    • United States

    • Vietnam

  • FOREIGN POLICY (IN GENERAL

    • LIBERALISM/LEFTISM

      • Conceptual Perversions

      • MEDIA

      • HIGHER EDUCATION

  • MISCELLANY

  • METHODS

  • PERSONAL

  • WAR, PAST AND PRESENT (ASIDE FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE PROPOSITION)

    • ON TERRORISM

All topics are internally linked through an initial outline so that one can easily access them.

One note for the HTML sophisticates. I had written the previous archive as one expanded table. This made for a lot of HTML. Now, I have vastly simplified the whole thing by laying out the archive in MS Word outline view, and transferring that to the webpage by the pre-/pre tags. Amazingly simple.

I have also redone the list of documents on my website, such that those on a particular topic are listed together. Makes searching the documents easier.

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Friday, June 2, 2006

Vectors of Action Toward Peace Part II

In Part I, I described five vectors of action toward peace at the state level. The table below provides a summary, and introduces what I will now discuss, which is such vectors at the international level. (If the table does not show, the server is down temporarily.)

Promoting peace and social justice—freedom—naturally would involve different vectors of action from the state level. While states generally have too much power for internal peace and social justice, the United Nations has too little. Especially, if there is to be the maximum global social justice consistent with minimizing international violence (that is, positive peace), then the UN will have to be strengthened along five vectors of action, as listed in the above table.

One is to move the UN, as our global political system, more toward facilitating and guaranteeing a right to emigrate. This is a critical right and freedom; its universalization would help weaken the power of dictatorships and moderate their excesses. Moreover, it would further international mobility and a free choice, both enhancing the exchange nature of international society.

(Continued here)

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Thursday, June 1, 2006

Vectors of Action Toward Peace Part I

The end of man is an action and not a thought, though it were the noblest. ----Thomas Carlyle. Sartor Resartus (Book ii, Chapter 6)

To wage peace we should foster freedom. But how? Encourage democratic revolutions? Intervening in dictatorships to topple tyrants? Make war for democracy? No, nothing like this.

Rather, the Positive Peace Principle argues that people should be left alone to form their own communities or states, to live their own lives. If they prefer to live in authoritarian societies (as many Islamists do) or under totalitarian governments (as do communists and fascists), that is their choice (given one can emigrate, a point I will come back to later). Promoting freedom does not mean, then, forcibly converting others into accepting an exchange society and liberal democratic government; nor does it mean waging a crusade against other societies or governments or ideologies. Instead, fostering freedom means to facilitate procedurally and institutionally people making their own choices about how they want to live, whether with freedom or not, as long as they do not try to impose their choice on others. This is the socially just approach.

(Continued here)

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Saturday, May 27, 2006

Saturday Responses 5-27-06

"Taliban Offensive Busted"

In this blog a made some comments on the Vietnam War. This elicited a number of responses on the cross post on Dean's World, which I will answer on Sunday. In particular, these are that the Vietnam War was a civil war, that the South was not an independent country, that the military mislead the American public about "there was light at the end of the tunnel," and that we failed to focus on winning the hearts and minds of the South Vietnamese. Myths all, and I will explain why.

(Continued here)

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Friday, May 26, 2006

Wage Peace? Foster Freedom

But little do or can the best of us:
That little is achieved through liberty. ----Robert Browning. Why l am a [classical] Liberal

I have written a lot on the principles of freedom, including its psychological, social, and political aspects, and how these aspects function at the interpersonal, social, and international levels. For each aspect and level I have tried to sum up my analysis in a First, Second, Third, and Fourth Master Principle. The question is now what final principle do these previous ones imply? Whether in reference to individuals and societies, to families, organizations, and nations, or to intergroup and international relations, the one Principle that distills waging peace is this.

PROMOTE FREEDOM
Why? I give the answer in three corollaries.

(Continued here)

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Saturday, May 20, 2006

Saturday Responses 5-19-06

The following comment appears on Dean's World regarding the cross post:

Htom said:

You really need to look at Isaiah 2:4 in context. The beating of swords and spears occurs AFTER the Lord has taken control of the world; it is not the cause of that peace:

2And it shall come to pass in the last days, that the mountain of the LORD's house shall be established in the top of the mountains, and shall be exalted above the hills; and all nations shall flow unto it.

3And many people shall go and say, Come ye, and let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, to the house of the God of Jacob; and he will teach us of his ways, and we will walk in his paths: for out of Zion shall go forth the law, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem.

4And he shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.

RJR: Ah, yes, but the context is generally unknown and unreferenced, while the words I quoted are widely used as a feel-good expression for what ought to be.

(Comments continued here)

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Thursday, May 18, 2006

The Peace Of Freedom—The Positive Peace Principle Part II

Why has the Constitution of the United States, which sets up a political system with horizontal and vertical divisions of power, failed to prevent a growth in government that undoubtedly now exceeds in size, power, and intervention in social and economic matters, the greatest fears of Madison, Jefferson, and Hamilton?

The answer lies along three dimensions. One is the involvement of the United States in war, especially the two World Wars, but also in the Korean and Vietnam wars. In time of war, governments centralize, extend and introduce controls, and mobilize resources and people. Massive intervention, coercion, and regulation are justified, and indeed accepted, in order to defeat the enemy, as we see now in the War On Terror. Unfortunately, such power once accumulated at the center is never completely dismantled when war ends. Through wars and threats to national security, governmental power has gone two steps upward, one step down. Indeed, the state historically is the child of war.

The second dimension involves the source of governmental power. Power that rests mainly on voting majorities has its source only in those majorities. Thus, what is a division of power institutionally becomes a unified power in direction. That is, since the legislators and executive win office by appealing to the same voters and judges appointed by the executive are confirmed by the legislature, Democratic Will becomes paramount. This tends to submerge the interests of minorities. The problem here is that the democratic trend towards one man-one vote tends to override the constitutional protection of minorities and individual freedom.

There is no consensus on what should have been or can now be done about this problem of limiting the source of government power. Perhaps the best solution is to tie each branch of government to major social interests—such as religion, business, and labor, which would jealously guard their own power and check the growth in that of others. To be sure, this is now done in the American government through, for example, regulatory boards that really represent the interest of those they regulate, such as the Departments of Commerce, Labor, and Agriculture that act in favor of and represent their special interests. This produces a quilt work, plurality of checks and balances. Nonetheless, overall it is still the final power of voting majorities that can and have enabled certain special interests to dominate, as do those supporting and benefiting from environmentalism, welfare, and corporate subsidies.

This brings me to the third dimension for limiting government. Most important in doing so is the dominant ideology of the people. If the people believe in freedom from government, in human rights, in individualism, in limited government, above particular interests, then by and large their ballots will keep governmental power limited. If they believe in government power, then government will enlarge.

The growth in governmental power today is correlated with a growth in an ideology of governmental power. The public has come to see government as a means for applying reason and science to solving social problems and improving society. They view government as responsible for society and for rectifying all that goes wrong with it. They see law as only government made; and believe that societies are designed and made by man. Especially, they view equality and social justice as higher ends than freedom, and government as the major tool for bringing both about.

Of course, publics develop their ideology through opinion leaders. These are mainly intellectuals who teach, write, and, in this age of television news and commentaries, speak about social and political affairs and interpret them for others. Today, government generally captivates intellectuals. They are rationalists who believe knowledge and science can improve society and that governmental power is the means towards this end. Government planning, controls, and intervention in society are seen as the implements to create a better society.

This is socialism, of course. And in this first quarter of the 21st Century, intellectuals by and large have accepted some kind of socialist framework, and which may be Marxist, neo-Marxist, anti-Marxist statist; or totalitarian Islamofascist, or even democratic as in democratic socialism. Following their teaching and endowed with their orientation, the public expects government to provide diverse services and solve social problems, and to be a basic means for achieving their particular interests through special laws in their favor, regulations helping their business or occupation, rules giving them particular privileges, loans at low interest, grants in the form of welfare or subsidies, or tax exemptions.

(Continued here)

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Wednesday, May 17, 2006

The Peace of Freedom—The Positive Peace Principle Part I

That government is best which governs least
----Thoreau. Civil Disobedience, 1849

They shall beat their swords into plowshares,
and their spears into pruning-hooks; nation shall
not lift sword against nation, neither shall
they learn war anymore.
----Isaiah 2:4

Believed desirable in itself, peace has been the great goal of humanity.

But, we also have other values. Truth and beauty. Justice. Love. And these values may be totally lost in the peace of the slave, the captive, the oppressed.

We should keep in mind, therefore, that there are two kinds of peace. One is negative peace. This is peace to be sure, but at the cost of our dignity or self-esteem or other vital interests: we may be tyrannized, or exploited, enslaved or downtrodden, broken or humiliated.

The other is positive peace. This is an order through which we can find happiness, satisfaction. Many of our central values will be gratified, and especially our self-esteem. It is not only peace from violence, but also peace of mind.

Obviously negative and positive peace are black and white opposites, while real life is often a gray blend. But they do exist. The citizens of the worst totalitarian states of the last century were really captives of a gang of thugs. Millions were enslaved in forced labor camps in the Soviet Union, and Cambodia was from 1975 to 1979 (when invading Vietnamese troops brought down the Pol Pot government) literally one border-to-border, slave labor camp. And so is North Korea today. Meanwhile the democracies many can and do achieve peace with dignity, personal satisfaction, and happiness. A fundamental question involved in making, keeping, or fostering peace, then, is how to improve or develop positive peace. The answer is summed in the Positive Peace Principle.

MINIMIZE THE POWER OF GOVERNMENT

The elements of this principle are:

  • positive peace,
  • government,
  • division and decentralization of government,
  • limitation of government freedom,
  • social justice.

(Continued here)

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Saturday, April 29, 2006

Saturday Responses 4-29-06

"The Best Discovery Since Fire—Pax Democratica"

Mike "Veeshir" Fisher said on Dean's World:

I wonder if we don't really have a long enough time-line to consider the Democratic Peace proven. After all, there aren't many democracies much over 100 years old and most of them are significantly younger.

Look at Japan and South Korea. They are two of our more stable democracies and they're having quite the tiff.

I do feel that democracies war on each other less. But..... People go to war. It's what we do. What happens when the majority of the Earth is democracies? Who do they war on? Or will it end war? And if it does end war, will it be because the US or somebody else is the most powerful and won't let the others war? Sort of like what happened in the USSR when they reserved the right to kill people to themselves.

RJR. The democratic peace has been tested on every democracy that has existed in history, most notably by Spencer Weart. See the summary chapter of his book Never At War. Anther way of looking at this is that there are 121 democracies today, and not a chance of even military action between any of them. Not even among the European nations, which throughout history have been at each other's throats. What changed this is that they all became democracies.

(Continued here)

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Thursday, April 27, 2006

The Best Discovery Since Fire—Pax Democratica

Support for the democratic peace proposition that democracies don't make war on each other continues to accumulate from social scientific research, while the information gatekeepers continue to ignore it. This is an incredible gap. On the one side there is these well accepted empirical findings about this solution to war, democide, and famine; on the other side is American foreign policy based on these findings; but in the middle there is a vast ignorance and misunderstanding of the democratic peace. So, I will continue to harp on it in the hope that I will help making more widely known this incredible power of democratic freedom. That is the purpose of this blog, my website, my novels, and all else I've written in the last 25 years.

Also to this end, I want to present the best work I've read on the democratic peace, which is the Ph.D. dissertation by Harries-Clichy (Pete) Peterson, Jr., titled PAX DEMOCRATICA: IMPLEMENTING THE INTER-DEMOCRATIC PEACE PROPOSITION (University of Hawaii, 2001—I had retired well before then and was not a member of his dissertation committee). The date is crucial, since it was written the year of the 9/11 attack, and thus before President Bush announced his democratic peace based, Forward Strategy of Freedom. Anyone reading both Peterson's dissertation and Bush's speeches since then might conclude that Bush had studied what Peterson had to say. I don't think so, but it is clear that both are eating at the same social scientific table.

(Continued here)

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Saturday, April 22, 2006

Saturday Responses 4-21-06

"What Do Americans Think Of The Democratic Peace?"

See the 21 comments on this cross-post to Dean's World

RJR—Some answers: No, I do not favor war to spread democracy.

I see Iran as a direct threat to the U.S. by virtue of its being the homeland of terrorism and its development of nukes. You can be sure that if it gets nukes, so will terrorists.

Given the spread of democracy among 121 countries, virtually all regions, all cultures, all religions, all races, and all ethnic groups have, or have had, at least one democracy representing them. The cultural argument against democracy, which was used against democratizing Japan after World War II, is no longer tenable.

It is a dangerous risk in the nuclear age not to accept a wide-consensus among the intelligence services of the democracies that a tyrant, who supports terrorism and has invaded his neighbors, has WMD, and is close to developing nukes. It is imperative in such a case to strike first and not wait for the mushroom cloud resulting from terrorists setting off a suitcase nuke in New York. Note the words "suitcase nuke." It is a potentially awful mistake to think only of nuclear tipped missiles.

(Continued here)

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Friday, April 21, 2006

The Peacefostering Principle

There is nothing permanent except change ----Heraclitus. Fragment

In its first decades of the UN, we all had much hope that it would foster peace. It has failed to do this, miserably and by its own admission. It failed mainly because of its membership of all the world's thug regimes. They could never accept the idea of freedom, which is at the basis of peacefostering. I intend to show here how and why freedom is so important for peace.

We can make peace. And we can try to keep it. But to foster peace is our primary goal. As illustrated in Figure 29.1, this means treating not a specific conflict and its resolution, but the ecology of peace: the general causes and conditions that produce and aggravate conflict and inhibit peace, peacekeeping, and peacemaking. Peacefostering means nurturing a healthy environment within which a happy, pervasive, and durable peace can evolve and flourish. It is encouraging the conflict helix. The principle is this (if the figure is unclear or does not show, click here).

FREEING ADJUSTMENT TO CHANGE FOSTERS PEACE

(Continued here)

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Thursday, April 20, 2006

What Do Americans Think Of The Democratic Peace?

The isolationists libertarian website LewRockwell.com has reported on an important survey, "Public Skeptical About Bush's Democracy Crusade" (here). Colleague comments on it below:

Regarding the survey on promoting democracy, one interesting finding was the fairly straightforward view (point 1) that most Americans don't favor "promoting democracy with military force" — of course not! Americans are so imbued with the democratic culture of bargaining, negotiating, and compromise, that reverting to the use of force for almost any purpose except clear self-defense is anathema.

This meshes with the view that going to war wasn't a good enough reason to do the Iraq war (point 2) — but then who said that was the main reason? This is a skewed question!

A disturbing finding (point 3) was that although a very large majority feels that democracy is the best form of government, there is less confidence (only 50%) that it is best for all countries. This does seem to mesh with the finding (point 8) that Americans don't think the US democracy is perfect . . . . I wish the survey had asked "If you don't believe that democracy is the best form of government for any particular country, what form of government DO you feel is best for that country. . . and why?"

(Continued here)

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Monday, April 17, 2006

Promoting Democracy -- From Rhetoric to Reality

From Pro Forma:

One of the most important steps in transforming something -- such as "promote democracy" from the area of theory-idea-normative to the arena of practice-structure/institution-description -- is to actually change the institutions. This is an important lesson the commies certainly understood; perhaps Gramsci's description of "marching through the institutions" is most illustrative. The lesson is one Democrats understand, and implement quite well in American politics: party loyalty is important, and once in power, they -- for the most part -- adhere to "the party line" and end up governing. Republicans don't seem to understand this, and as Newt Gingrich keeps pointing out, Republicans are still more habituated to criticism and apology rather than running things as if they really were in charge, and even though they control both White House and both chambers of Congress -- they do not govern well.

Looking at the transformation of the Democratic Peace from theory to practice has been frustrating in American politics. Look at the Clinton administration's use of democracy rhetoric: it figured prominently in the National Security Strategy document (promoting democracy was one of the three pillars of Clinton's American foreign policy), and Secretary of State Albright did good "democracy talk." But the Clinton administration did little as far as actually changing the institutions of foreign policy to make promoting democracy a structural -- not just rhetorical -- reality.

(Continued here)

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Saturday, April 15, 2006

Saturday Responses 4-14-06

"Is Islam The Enemy?"

Anonymous said:

You are a narrow minded moron. European, American, and Israeli imperialism should go unanswered, and Muslims should shut up and be good & obedient slaves that say “yes-masta”. Screw you and those that preach your crap. The problem of course starts with you trying your snow-job of how you have no biases. You are not from Mars – get over it – you are a mortal with biases. Besides how un-democratic, America is built on the idea that people passionately debate different opinions and letting the people decide what makes the most sense for them. The real enemy are those that push un-American, oppressive, and imperialistic policies disguised in American and Israeli, military uniforms in the Muslim world. Those decades of oppression are now coming home to roost.

RJR: No, cross my heart, I didn't make this one up.

John said:

Dr. Rummel; I just discovered your blog via Dean's World. I really appreciate this thoughtful look at WHO the REAL enemy is. I have not yet read your other thoughts on the war on terrorism and perhaps you could refer me to relevant ones to what I'm about to talk about and ask about.

I have stated, at Dean's World and other blogs including my own ( www.evolutionarymiddleman.blogspot.com ) that while I strongly condemn the WAY the current administration is fighting the war, I'm not against it. I simply believe that this should always have been fought an entirely different way. Should we not recognize that this is unlike all the "traditional" wars we have fought in our country's past? Should we not be fighting a war expressly against "Islamofascists" and not against "Islamic COUNTRIES"? Should we not employ stealth, intelligence, technology, special forces, etc. to identify and engage (through covert ops) terrorist leaders, cells, supporters WHERE EVER WE FIND THEM and refrain from trying to conquer nations and build democracies?

RJR: The best place to go to see what blogs I've written is my topical archive. I also have a huge Q and A. I think you are misinformed about the War on Terror. The United States does recognize that this is unlike all the "traditional" wars we have fought in our country's past? And it is fighting a war expressly against "Islamofascists" and not against "Islamic COUNTRIES"? It does employ stealth, intelligence, technology, special forces, etc. to identify and engage (through covert ops) terrorist leaders, cells, supporters WHERE EVER found and it does refrain from trying to conquer nations to build democracies? The purpose of invading Afghanistan was to destroy the Taliban and their support for Al Quida. The invasion of Iraq was to topple Saddam. In neither case was the object to build democracy, any more than it was in the defeat of Japan and Germany in WWII. However, once you defeat the enemy and occupy his country, what do you do but try to democratize them so that they won't be enemies again.

(Continued here)

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Friday, April 7, 2006

Still More Evidence For No War Between Democracies

Still, No Wars Between Democracies

This morning I came across two blogs (here, and here) that relied on Matthew White's page to dismiss the democratic peace. Since White continues to have influence on the democratic peace debate, I am revising and reposting my July 13, 2005 blog on his statistics.


Thanks to Dean Esmay for referring me to Matthew White's page that raises questions about the democratic peace. I know of White's useful Historical Atlas of the Twentieth Century , and have used his statistics in my own research. He is careful, thoughtful, and systematic in what he presents, so when he questions the democratic peace, he has to be answered.

First, he presents the pros and cons about the various possible exceptions to the democratic peace. Keep in mind that the democratic peace, among other propositions, says that democracies don't make war on each other. So, a true negative example thunders against this. Many have been proposed such exceptions, such as the War of 1812, the Boar War, WWI and Germany, democratic Finland being allied with Hitler in WWII, and the American Civil War. The sheer number of these exceptions and the weight of all the pros that White provides gives the impression that there has to be something to at least one or more of them. I have not studied them all, but those I have spent some time on in my own research, such as Germany in WWI, the case of Finland, the Boar War, and the Civil War simply cannot be treated as true exceptions. Others who have investigated these possible exceptions, in addition to the rest of them on White's list, agree. In particular, I point you to Bruce Russett's Grasping the Democratic Peace, James Lee Ray's Democracy and International Conflict, and Spencer R. Weart's, Never At War. Russett and Ray are political scientists, Weart is an historian. See also my democratic peace bibliography and my Q & A, which answers questions about some of these supposed exceptions (use the search command to find them).

After going through the exceptions, White concludes that the democratic peace depends on the definition of democracy and war. Researchers know this, of course, and have done different things about it. One is to collect their own data according to very clear, replicable criteria, while others have used data on democracy and war that have a wide reputation for their validity. Two sources especially have been important. One is the statistics on war collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, such as their data on wars from 1816 to 1992. I have used this in my research (see the table in the upper right here) as have hundreds of others. I should say that Small and Singer do not accept the democratic peace, which makes their classification of wars and democracies since 1816 particularly important. For democracy, in addition to the Small and Singer classification, which I am one of the few to use, there is the very popular and respected Polity data, which provides a scale for measuring the degree to which a country is democratic or autocratic. For an additional data set used in replicating the democratic peace, go here.

What is noteworthy about all these different data on democracy and war whose definitions or criteria slightly differ, is that those using them have come out with the same conclusions: there is a democratic peace. Replications have well established this to the point that students of international relations say it is the best-tested proposition in the field and almost has the status of a law.

Now, Mathew White lists 39 wars 1945-1999, and says that six "might have been between democracies," which means they might not have been, but still he makes much of it in calculating the probability of this happening by chance. Rather than deal with his "might have been," I'm going to actually collect data from two sources on democracy and international violence between countries. The source I will use for violence is compiled by Monty G. Marshall on "Major Episodes of Political Violence 1946-2004;" for democracy, I will use Freedom's House's "All Country Ratings from 1972-2003" (Sorry, I can't find it on their stupidly remodeled website). Freedom House is not a proponent of the democratic peace (I don't recall them ever mentioning it), so we can treat their data as independent of this proposition. Similarly with Marshall, who along with Ted Gurr, is the author of the Peace and Conflict Survey 2005 that I referred to in my last blog for ignoring the democratic peace.

From Marshall's data, I'll include as violence any that is indicated in his data as "international." This is a hard test, since it includes violence short of war. From Freedom House, I will use their Free (F) rating of a country for a year as defining a liberal democracy in terms of civil liberties and political rights.

First, how many liberal democracies are there versus the total number of countries. For five years spans after 1972 and ending with 2003 (year, number of liberal democracies, total number of countries):

1972, 43, 148
1975, 39, 158
1980, 50, 162
1985, 55, 166
1990, 64, 165
1995, 75, 191
2000, 85, 192
2003, 87, 192
Now, for the classification of violence between types of regimes (F = free, PF = partly free, NF = not free, where F-F = between free countries, etc.)
F-F = 0
F-PF = 6
F-NF = 11
PF-PF = 5
PF-NF= 4
NF-NF= 20
So, between which countries is there the least violence? Between liberal democracies. Which countries are the most violent towards each other? Nondemocracies. All as precisely predicted by the democratic peace.

A note on statistical tests. Think of this subjectively. Here you have all these liberal democracies for each of thirty-one years, and none of them have violence between them. This is not a matter of just five or ten democracies, but by the end of the 1990s, there are over eighty. This number is not my reckoning, but that of Freedom House. And by Marshall's data, in spite of so many democracies, none had violence between them vs. 20 cases of violence between the nonfree ones during these years.

Now, some people don't like subjective statistics, so lets calculate the probability. There are 46 cases of international violence, and six alternative ways that could occur (e.g., F-F, or PF-PF). Let the number 1 stand for the F-F alternative, and the other five numbers for each of the others. Throw a six-numbered die 46 times, and what is the probability that it will never come up with a 1? The probability that it will not come up a 1 in one throw is 5/6. So, the probability of no 1 in 46 throws is 5/6 to the 46th power (assuming each case of violence is independent), which is a probability of happening by chance of 8.02E-36, or about the probability of one being hit by a meteor.

Obviously, there has to be something more than chance here. And what is that something? Surprise. It is two countries having democratic governments. That is, the democratic peace.

Link of Note

"DOES DEMOCRACY CAUSE PEACE?" By James Lee Ray. In Annual. Review of Political Science 1998. 1:27-46.

ABSTRACT
The idea that democratic states have not fought and are not likely to fight interstate wars against each other runs counter to the realist and neorealist theoretical traditions that have dominated the field of international politics. Since the mid-1970s, the generation of new data and the development of superior analytical techniques have enabled evaluators of the idea to generate impressive empirical evidence in favor of the democratic peace proposition, which is reinforced by substantial theoretical elaboration. Some critics argue that common interests during the Cold War have been primarily responsible for peace among democracies, but both statistical evidence and intuitive arguments cast doubt on that contention. It has also been argued that transitions to democracy can make states war-prone, but that criticism too has been responded to persuasively. The diverse empirical evidence and developing theoretical bases that support the democratic peace proposition warrant confidence in its validity.
RJR: It is Ray that should be referenced on the democratic peace, and not Mathew White. But, that is too much to expect out of the isolationist libertarian crowd.

Democratic Peace
Books/articles/statistics

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Monday, April 3, 2006

How To Keep The Peace—Understand Power

It's maxim not to be despised 'Though peace be made, yet its interest that keeps the peace. ----Cromwell. Speech, September 4, 1654

Born out of conflict, the labor of mutual adjustments to change, peace is a new social contract. Its spine is a balance of powers; its organs, expectations. But peace eventually ages and, overcome by change, dies as it entered this world: in conflict. And of its life, cooperative and productive, its offspring, experience, will remain.

Thus the question: how to assure peace a long and healthy life, and to minimize the burden of its inevitable passing. The Peacekeeping Principle underlies the answers. It is this.

PEACE DEPENDS ON KEEPING EXPECTATIONS AND POWER ALIGNED

(Continued here)

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Saturday, April 1, 2006

WHAT IS THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AND WHY PURSUE IT?

Research on the democratic peace, the idea that democracies do not make war on each other, has become a dominant finding in the field of international relations.

What is the democratic peace? In the literature on or referring to the democratic peace, this means the idea or fact that democracies do not (or virtually never) make war on each other. I will call this the war version.

Although this understanding of the democratic peace is extremely important--after all, it implies the end of war--I believe that focusing only on this version is fundamentally misleading. It is as though we had scientifically established that a drug would generally cure or minimize all cancer, while only focusing the drug on lung cancer in our medical advice.

This analogy is not strained, for democracies have not only not made war on each other, but they also have, by far, the least foreign violence, domestic collective violence, and democide (a much greater killer than war by several orders of magnitude). That is, democracy, or to be more precise, democratic freedom is a general cure for political or collective violence of any kind--it is a method of nonviolence. This is truly a democratic peace. I call this understanding of the democratic peace, which is supported by the theory, evidence, and analyses on my web site at www.hawaii.edu/powerkills, the general version.

To be clear, then:

The War Version of the Democratic Peace is that:

democratically free countries do not or virtually never make war on each other.
The General Version of the Democratic Peace is that:
(1) Democracy is a general method of nonviolence. Democracies:
• Do not make war on each other; • minimize the severity of foreign violence and war; • minimize domestic (collective) violence; • don’t murder their own people.

(2) And power kills. Totalitarian regimes (the power opposite of democracies):

• make war on each other; • have the most severe foreign violence and war • have the most severe domestic (collective) violence • murder their own people.
Most of the world's people have been robbed of their freedom by one dictatorship or another. Some, like the regimes of Burma, Cuba, Libya, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and Turkmenistan, are more than just dictatorships. Their tyrannical dictators are slave masters ruling their people by the their slightest whims and desires and those of their henchmen. These poor people live in constant fear for themselves and their loved ones. And they are murdered by hundreds of millions. In the last century alone 272,000,000 of them were shot, burned, stabbed, tortured, beaten, starved to death, blasted to death, buried alive, or whatever other ways of murdering their slaves these thugs could imagine. This horrific and evil toll of bodies could, head-to-toe, circle the earth over ten times. It as though a catastrophic nuclear war had happened, but its mountain of deaths spread over each day of the last century.

The existence of these ruling thugs creates an unbridgeable chasm in the world. On one side are such criminal gangs, sanctified by the term "government," and the United Nations they dominate, enforcing by their guns mass slavery, mass death, mass violence, mass impoverishment, and mass famines. On the other side are democratic countries where people are free, secure, and need never fear mass impoverishment, death at the hands of government agents, and killing famine.

This chasm between life and death, security and fear, on the same planet and at the same time, must no longer be tolerated. Dictatorships, even if benign, are by their very existence a crime against humanity, and must be eliminated peacefully, if possible; by force if they are murdering their people. However, the intellectuals, commentators, analysts, academics, and reporters of the democracies have identified power with greatness, thugs with statesmen, and propaganda with results; we have let moral and cultural relativism silence our outrage, while conceding the moral high ground to the utopian dreamers; we have refused to recognize evil as evil; and we have ignored the catastrophic human cost of such confusions, and the natural and moral right to freedom.

What is so often ignored is that all people, everywhere, want to be free, to exercise their human rights that are theirs by natural and international law, and by an implicit social contract. Were this the only justification for freedom, it would be sufficient to make spreading freedom the ultimate policy.

But there is more to freedom than this. Much more. It provides the most important Moral Goods that humanity can desire. First:

The more people are free, the greater their human development and national wealth. In short, freedom is the way to economic and social human security.
Still, human security involves more than wealth and prosperity. There is the security of knowing that one’s life and the lives of loved ones are safe from deadly famines. Therefore, second:
Free people never have famines.
But as important as these Moral Goods are, they do not deal with the worst hell to which billions of human beings are still subject — torture, rape, beatings, forced labor, genocide, mass murder, executions, deportations, political violence, and war. With no human rights, these billions live in fear for their lives, and for those of their loved ones. There is a third Moral Good of freedom:
Where people are free, political violence is minimal.
Where people are not free, as in Burma, Sudan, and North Korea, people are only pieces on a playing board for the armed thugs and gangs that oppress them, rape them, loot them, exploiting them, and murdering them.

The gangs that control these so-called governments oppress whole nations under cover of international law. They are like a gang that captures a group of hikers and then does with them what it wills, robbing all, torturing and murdering some because gang members don’t like them or they are “disobedient,” and raping others. And they murder their slaves by whim, by hatred, by quota, and sometimes for no reason at all. The worst of these gangs are megamurderers with their victims reaching into the tens of millions. Such murder is democide, and its elimination as one of humanity's plagues is the greatest of all Moral Goods.

Then, fourth:

The more freedom a people have, the more unlikely their government will murder them. Democratically free governments commit no democide.
This huge moral split in the world between governing thugs that murder their slaves wholesale, and free people that fear no such personal disaster for them or their loved ones, is unconscionable and unacceptable. It is time for concerted nonviolent action to eliminate these criminal thugs and free their slaves.

However, there is still one more Moral Good that even more strengthens this moral imperative. Finally:

The less free the people within any two nations are, the bloodier and more destructive the wars between them; the greater their freedom, the less likely such wars become. Free people do not make war on each other.
What this means is that we do not have to wait for all, or almost all nations to become democracies to reduce the severity of war. As we promote freedom, as the people of more and more nations gain greater human rights and political liberties, as those people without any freedom become partly free, we will decrease the bloodiness of the world’s wars. In short:
Increasing freedom in the world decreases the death toll of its wars. Surely, whatever reduces and then finally ends the scourge of war in our history, without causing a greater evil, must be the greatest moral good. And this is freedom.
The implications of all these Moral Goods of freedom for foreign policy and international activism are profound.
To promote global human security, to do away with famine, mass impoverishment, democide, and war, and to minimize internal violence, promote freedom.
Since peace, national security, and national and global welfare are the paramount concerns of a democratic nation’s foreign policy, its overriding goal should be to peacefully promote human rights and democratic freedom. This should be the bottom line of international negotiations, treaties, foreign aid, and military action (if necessary for defense or humanitarian reasons, as in Kosovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan, or Iraq). As to defense policy, military planning usually is based on assessments of the intentions and capability of others. What is clear is that the less free the people of a nation are, the more we should beware of the intentions of their rulers. In other words, it is not the democracies of the world that we need to defend against.

Moreover, consider what the peace-creating power of freedom means for nuclear weapons. Many people are justly worried about the ultimate danger to humanity—nuclear war. They protest and demonstrate against nuclear weapons. Some cross the line into illegal activities, such as destroying military property, and risk prison to draw public attention to the cataclysmic danger of such weapons. Were these dedicated people to spend even half this effort on promoting freedom and human rights for the people of the most powerful dictatorships that have or may soon have such weapons—for instance, China, North Korea, and Iran—they would be striking at the root cause of the risk of nuclear war.

The power of freedom to end war, minimize violence within nations, and eradicate genocide and mass murder almost seems magical. It is as though we have a single-drug cure for cancer, but in the case of freedom, it is all true and well established.

Our knowledge of the peace-creating and peacemaking effects of freedom now gives us a nonviolent way to promote a nonviolent world. The ultimate conclusion of all this is:

Power kills, absolute power kills absolutely.
And
Democratic freedom is a method of nonviolence.


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For the books, articles, papers, data, theory, and tests supporting the above propositions

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